Doncaster each-way tip (1515): Trends pinpoint Forward Plan as decent value in Yorkshire Chase

There’s a couple of super meetings from Cheltenham and Doncaster to enjoy, but the diminutive fields at Prestbury Park have resulted in me looking at this big-field handicap with 18 runners lining up for the Yorkshire Chase.

15.15 Doncaster:  SBK Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (3 miles)

I have used the trends below to try and reduce the field for further analysis:

• 17/18 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before 
• 15/18 – Carried 11st-2lb or less 
• 14/18 – Officially rated 130 or higher 
• 13/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences)
• 13/18 – Aged 9 or younger
• 12/18 – Irish bred 
• 11/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting 
• 11/18 – Unplaced favourites 
• 11/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks 
• 10/18 – Carried 10st-12lb or less 
• 10/18 – Finished unplaced last time out 
•   8/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting 
•   5/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out 
•   3/18 – Won last time out 
•   2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls 
•   2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable 
•   2/18 – Winning favourites 
•   2/18 – Trained by Alan King

Having applied the trends above we have ended up with a shortlist of four horses:

Forward Plan won over this course and distance last time and despite not being the biggest, Anthony Honeyball’s eight-year-old does jump well and has a good turn of foot in between fences. 

He went up four pounds for his most recent win around here in December, and he still looks to be on a reasonable mark considering he has won at Class 2 level. 

Forward Plan does need to improve again to win here, but I do think he has scope to progress further in this sphere.

Suggested bet: Forward Plan each-way in the 15:15 at Doncaster

Erne River has enjoyed some results at Doncaster, where he has landed three of his five career wins, two of which were over fences, including over this very trip last time out  at the end of December. 

Being a course and distance winner is a plus; however, he has not won at this level before, and he will need a career-best performance to beat all of his rivals here.

Surrey Quest has won his last two chases, including at Newbury four weeks ago, so he arrives in good form.

However, he must overcome a seven-pound rise at the weights following his last win, and that race was at a lower level and a class and weight rise is usually not a great combination.

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Sweet Will is trained by the enigmatic Emmet Mullins, having switched from Gavin Cromwell following three back-to-back races where he was pulled up. 

The seven-year-old has not set the world alight since switching but has at least completed the two races he has contested, finishing a more promising fourth in his last run despite being badly hampered by a faller, and he gets in here with a very low weight.

There are some decent horses in the top half of the handicap including Richmond Lake, Kandoo Kid, Famous Bridge and Irish raider Hascoeur Clermont from the Gavin Cromwell stable. 

However, based purely on the trends analysis I am recommending an each way bet on Forward Plan, who gets in here with a nice weight and the excellent Ben Godfrey takes off three valuable pounds. 

As always, remember to look around for extra places from your bookmaker. 

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Cheltenham and Doncaster on January 27