Cheltenham racing tip: Trends analysis offers each-way hope to No Risk Des Flos
Horses jumping fence at Cheltenham
Cheltenham’s November meeting is always a sign that the National Hunt season is gathering pace, leading racing experts Andrew of Fiosrach to focus his trends analysis on one of Friday’s big handicaps.
1.45 Cheltenham: Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (2 miles - Old Course)
Our selection last weekend disappointed having drifted from 13/2 to 20/1 in the betting, which did suggest it was not spot on for this race.
This weekend welcomes the three-day November meeting at Cheltenham, and on day one we are looking at this intriguing 11-runner handicap chase.
Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Walk In Clover finishes in the first 3 places, get a £5 Free Bet!
As usual, we are using recent winners’ trends below to reduce the field to a few runners for a more focused analysis:
- 19/20 – Aged under 10 years old
- 17/20 – Raced at Cheltenham before
- 17/20 – Raced at least 5 times over fences
- 16/20 – Carried under 11st-8lb
- 16/20 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
- 12/20 – Unplaced in their previous race
- 11/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
- 11/20 – Favourites placed
- 11/20 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting
- 10/20 - Having their first run of the season
- 8/20 – French-bred horse
- 4/20 – Favourites that won
- 4/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- 3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
- 3/20 – Raced at Ascot last time out
- 3/20 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
- 2/20 – Won their most recent race
- 2/20 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
- 2/20 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan (2 of the last 5)
- 0/20 – Irish-trained winners
- 3/10 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
Using the trends above reduced the field to three runners all of which are at the forefront of the betting forecast: No Risk Des Flos, Triple Trade and Guy.
Suggested bet: No Risk Des Flos in the 13:45 at Cheltenham
No Risk Des Flos has run at Grade 3 level, but it’s worth noting four of his five career wins have been at Wetherby, but his lack of course form is the only negative, as he has a good career winning strike rate.
His stable is in good form also, boasting a 17 per cent win rate over the last two weeks, while Sean Bowen is leading the jockeys’ championship.
Triple Trade was second in a similar race here in October when he managed to finish ahead of the re-opposing Madara, Guy and Prince Escalus.
Brendan Powell has ridden him each time he has won, but is eleven pounds above his last winning mark, although his last race showed he could go close off a similar mark.
Trainer Joe Tizzard is in red-hot form and Triple Trade should go close, with the only negative being that all of his wins have been over longer trips than this.
Guy has run over fences sixteen times and has managed to finish in the top three on eleven occasions, albeit only managing to get his nose in front in two of those races.
He looks highly likely to place again and despite the stable having a 30 per cent strike rate it would take a change of attitude and a career-best performance from Guy to win here.
No Risk Des Flos is available between 13/2 and 8/1 at the time of writing, and to cover his lack of a course run and having his first outing of the season, I am recommending him as an each-way option (four places available in some quarters).
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