Cheltenham Festival Pertemps Network Final tips: Monmiral can land a blow under Harry Cobden

Our trends-related tips hit the ground running in the Ultima on day one, with our four shortlisted picks all finishing in the first six - Chianti Classico (1st 6/1), Twig (2nd 28/1), Famous Bridge (4th 25/1) and Weveallbeencaught (6th 11/1).

Day two brought us more each-way profit with 13/2 shot Ballyadam running a great race to finish a gallant runner-up behind Langer Dan, who became the first horse to win back-to-back Ryanairs.

14:10 - Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (3 miles)

On Thursday our target is this intriguing 24-runner handicap, and and we’re hope to use the trends below to narrow the field with similar success to the previous two days:

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Gabbys Cross finishes in the first 4 places, get a £5 Free Bet!

Positive trends

• Last 12 winners were aged 8 or younger
• 9/16 winners placed in their last race (5 won)
• 11/23 were from outside the top 5 in the betting
• 12/13 were rated 138 or higher
• 12/17 were rated between 132-142 (inc)
• 11/13 were rated between 138-148
• 12/19 had won over at least 2 miles 7 furlongs
• 9/12 had fewer than 11 times over hurdles
• 6/11 had run fewer than 8 times over hurdles
• 8/10 returned 12/1 or shorter
• 8/23 had won their last race
• 6/8 ran at Leopardstown last time out
• 7/8 wore a tongue-tie
• 7/8 winners Irish-trained
• 6/8 ran in the Leopardstown Qualifier (Christmas)
• 3/15 winners finished in the first 5 in the Betfair Hurdle
• Look for Jonjo O’Neill, Twiston-Davies, Mullins, and Pipe-trained runners
• Respect JP McManus-owned horses – won it again in 2019 and 2020
• Trainer Gordon Elliott has won 3 of the last 6 runnings
• Respect horses with headgear (8 since 2000)

Negative trends

• Avoid horses with less than 6 runs over hurdles
• Horses that have won 3+ times that season have a poor recent record
• Since 2000 only 1 winner did not have a run that calendar year
• 5-year-olds have won just twice since 1973
• Just 1 horse rated 150+ since 2000 has finished in the top 2
• Only 2 winning favourites in last 18 years
• Just 1 winner in the last 41 years aged 10+
• Paul Nicholls is currently 0 from 19 (One 3rd and two 2nds in the last 10 runnings)
• Horses aged 7 or younger and priced in single figures are just 3 from 50.

Icare Allen is owned by the legendary JP McManus, and he has a strong record in this race. Willie Mullins also has a good record in the race, but Icare Allen needs to improve to win this; however, in his favour is the fact that he does meet a number of the trends.

Cuthbert Dibble has a strong winning strike rate, including 2/2 this season, and comes from Nigel Twiston-Davies’ stable, which boasts a decent record in this race. My concern is that he had a really hard race last time only 26 days ago, and does not have any headgear on, which is a negative in terms of trends.

Monmiral is a horse that I have had in my tracker for a while, waiting for him to run in a three-mile handicap. Paul Nicholls does not have the best record in this race, but recently has had three places in the last ten runnings.

Monmiral looks to be too big a price in this company for a race such as this and might sneak into one of the places under Harry Cobden, who might enjoy himself more on a less-fancied ride.

Suggested bet: Monmiral each-way in the 14:10 at Cheltenham

There are a number of Irish runners including Cleatus Poolaw and Gaoth Chuil, which ran well in the Leopardstown qualifier at Christmas, but both fall down on other trends. 

Mill Green at aged twelve runs again here having placed for the last three renewals and has a claimer onboard which is a positive for a Nicky Henderson horse in a handicap. I also think Chantry House will go well, as his course record is excellent.

Based on the trends alone however, I am suggesting and each-way bet on Monmiral and while I know I am ignoring the recent Irish dominance, at the price he offers a great deal of value.

As always, be sure to shop around for the best prices and extra each-way places where available.

Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle key stats

Top 3 trainers (last 20 years)

• Gordon Elliott - 20 runners, 3 winners and 5 places
• Jonjo O'Neill - 30 runners, 2 winners and 1 place
• David Pipe - 26 runners, 2 winners and 4 places

Top 3 jockeys (last 20 years)

• Aidan Coleman - 12 rides with 1 winner and 1 place
• Paddy Brennan - 9 rides with 1 winner and 3 places
• Richie McLernon - 5 rides with 1 winner

Past 5 winners of the Pertemps Network Final

• 2019 Sire Du Berlais 4/1F
• 2020 Sire Du Berlais 10/1
• 2021 Mrs Milner 12/1
• 2022 Third Wind 25/1
• 2023 Good Time Jonny 9/1 

Britain v Ireland

• Britain - 11 winners and 40 places from 357 runners
• Ireland - 9 winners and 20 places from 104 runners

READ MORE: Harry Cobden Planet Sport Bet Blog: Stage set to Star on Thursday at the Cheltenham Festival