Cheltenham best bet: Springwell Bay trending towards New Year’s Day hurdle success

First of all, I would like to wish a happy and healthy New Year to all readers of this column! 

It was good to finish 2023 on a winning note, with Captain Teague heavily backed into 2/1 favourite before landing the Challow Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday. I hope you managed to grab the 7/2 or 3/1 that was available earlier in the morning. 

We also shortlisted Lookaway, who came second at 11/2, and 20/1 shot The Jukebox Man who was just a neck further adrift in third, making it a bumper 1-2-3 for our three trends selections and a great way to sign off the year.

14:40 Cheltenham Paddy Power Handicap Hurdle (3 miles - New Course)

We kick off the New Year at Cheltenham and hopefully we can hit the ground running with another winner.

As usual, I have used a number of trends to help narrow the field for further analysis:

• 17/19 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks 
• 15/19 – Aged between 5-7 years old 
• 15/19 – Had won a hurdles race over at least 2m4f 
• 14/19– Had raced at Cheltenham before 
• 14/19 – Had won at least twice over hurdles in the UK
• 13/19 – Rated 130 or higher 
• 12/19 – Unplaced last time out 
• 11/19 – Carried 10st-9lb or more 
• 11/19 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival 
• 11/19 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting 
•   9/19 – Unplaced favourites 
•   9/19 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out 
•   8/19 – Had won over at least 3 mile (hurdles) 
•   8/19 – French bred 
•   5/19 – Had won over hurdles at Cheltenham 
•   5/19 – Won last time out 
•   4/19 – Winning favourites 
•   2/19 – Won by the Pipe stable 
•   1/19 – Won by a mare

Having used the trends above I have the following three horses on my shortlist: Springwell Bay, Ed Keeper and Butch.

Springwell Bay has won four of his six hurdle outings to date and that included winning here in November - I was there to watch him live that day and was impressed by his hurdling and how he travelled through the race. If he settles early in the race, I do not think the extra three furlongs will trouble him, although the application of a first-time tongue tie does raise questions about his breathing. 

Suggested bet: Springwell Bay in the 14:50 at Cheltenham

Ed Keeper won last time out in impressive fashion over this trip at Newbury and the only negative I can see is his lack of Cheltenham experience. He has not finished outside the top three in five hurdle races, and he looks like the type that will develop into a top chaser in coming seasons. Ed Keeper comes into this race with a strong chance, and my only concern is that the stable is fairly quiet presently.

Butch has won over this trip and has also won at Cheltenham, a victory that has caused a six-pound hike, also he has been off course for longer than ideal, having not run since October. The stable and jockey are both in great form, though, and it will be no surprise if Butch prevails in this intriguing hurdle.

Outside of the three shortlisted by the trends, The Newest One and Ikarak should be thereabouts with a slight preference for the former.

Based on the trends and the analysis above, we are going to suggest a win bet on Springwell Bay, who gets the nod after impressing me a lot when winning at the Cheltenham meeting in November.

READ MORE: New Year’s Day racing tips: Best bets for Cheltenham and Musselburgh on January 1