Cheltenham Champion Hurdle ante-post tips: Constitution Hill withdrawal opens door for State Man

Tuesday March 12 15.30 Cheltenham: Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (2 miles 87 yards)

We kick off our ante-post Cheltenham coverage with the Champion Hurdle, which has sadly been turned on its head following the withdrawal of the early short-priced favourite Constitution Hill who has not recovered from a poor scope following a disappointing workout at Kempton just two weeks before the first day of the Festival.

Our own initial ante-post pick was an each-way dabble on Impaire Et Passe, but his connections have decided to swerve Cheltenham in favour of a possible tilt at Aintree, so we've had to reassess.

Using the trends below, taken from the last 12 runnings of the race, we are attempting to reduce the field and hopefully find an alternative option to the hot favourite in the ante post markets.

Age  

• 10 of the last 12 winners were aged between 6 and 8 

Price 

• 8/12 were favourites (inc joint), 
• 9/12 were in the top 3 in the betting 

Last Run

• 11/12 had won or placed last time out 
• 10/12 won on their last run 
• 12/12 ran within the last 78 days 
•   4/12 ran in the Irish Champion Hurdle (Leopardstown) last time out (3/4 won), 
•   4/12 ran in the Christmas Hurdle (Kempton) last time out (3/4 won) 

Previous Course Form 

• 11/12 had at least 1 previous run at Cheltenham, 
•   8/12 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham 

Previous Distance Form 

• 10/12 had at least 5 runs over 15-17 furlongs 
•   9/12 had at least 5 wins over 15-17 furlongs 

Previous Hurdle Form 

•   9/12 had at least 6 previous runs over hurdles 
• 11/12 had at least 4 wins over hurdles 

Rating

• 10/12 were rated 161 or higher 

Grade 1 Wins 

• 10/12 had at least 1 previous grade 1 win 

Season Form

• 11/12 had at least 2 runs that season
• 12/12 had at least 1 win that season 
• 10/12 had at least 2 wins that season

After applying the trends, and following subsequent withdrawals, we are left with just two prime contenders:

One horse's withdrawal is another's opportunity, and no-one could really begrudge State Man his hour in the sun after racing in Constitution Hill's shadow over the past couple of seasons.

This hugely talented hurdler has only been out of the first two once in 12 starts, with nine victories that include seven at Grade 1 level, and in most seasons he would already have been the short-priced favourite in his own right.

Willie Mullins' seven-year-old landed his eighth Grade 1 success when cruising to victory in the Irish Champion Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival in early February, so should arrive at Cheltenham in prime shape to take on his nemesis.

The earlier withdrawal of Impaire Et Passe had already removed another of the threats for a frame finish, but now the stage is set for State Man make his own mark on Cheltenham's illustrious honnours board.

Of the others, Irish Point has won six of 11 starts, including three at Grade 1 level, the last of which was in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown, where he demolished the high-class field by over 11 lengths. 

There were murmurs that Irish Point was being favoured to run in the Stayers’ Hurdle, but final declarations has him taking on State Man, possibly influenced by the absence of Constitution Hill, and the early market has him as the only one of the favourite's seven rivals to command a singel-digit price.

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