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  • Ayr Best Bets: Mr Vango And My Silver Lining Lead The Trends In Scottish Grand National Bid

Ayr best bets: Mr Vango and My Silver Lining lead the trends in Scottish Grand National bid

After landing us a tidy win and an each-way place with his two main Newmarket tips this week, our trends analyst Andrew of Fiosrach turns his attention to Saturday’s Scottish Grand National at Ayr.

After Wednesday’s selection won for us, it was close but no cigar a day later, with all three on Thursday's shortlist finishing in the first four, only to be pipped by the 33/1 winner Washington Heights.

Our main pick Mill Stream was backed down from 11/1 to 6/1 and he ran as well we expected, finishing less than a length behind the winner, beating our second pick Spycatcher (15/2) by a short head, with fourth-placed Mitbaahy outrunning his 25/1 price tag.

This weekend we are tackling the Scottish Grand National, and hopefully we can mirror the success of last weekend's Aintree selections, Galvin and Aint’That A Shame, who finished fourth and sixth at 40/1 last Saturday.

3.35 Ayr: Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (4 miles)

Using the trends below we will try to narrow the 26-runner field down to a more manageable number for further analysis:

  • 20/20 – Last ran 57 days or less ago 
  • 18/20 – Finished in the top 6 last time out 
  • 17/20 – Aged 8 or older 
  • 17/20 - Came from a different stable 
  • 17/20 - Carried 11st-1lb or less 
  • 16/20 – Fell or unseated no more than once in their careers 
  • 15/20 – Finished in the first 3 last time out 
  • 15/20 – French or Irish bred 
  • 14/20 – Aged between 8-10 years old 
  • 14/20 – Had won over 3 miles or further 
  • 14/20 – Last raced between 30-57 days ago 
  • 13/20 – Carried 10st-9lb or less 
  • 13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting 
  • 13/20 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market 
  •   8/20 – Won last time out 
  •   7/20 – Won (fences) at Ayr before 
  •   6/20 – Had won over 3m7f or further before 
  •   3/20 – Returned 15/2 in the betting 
  •   3/20 – Winning favourites (or joint) 
  •   2/20 – Ran in the Grimthorpe Chase (Doncaster) last time out 
  •   2/20 – Trained by Christian Williams (the last 2 winners) 
  •   2/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 7 winners) 
  •   2/20 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies 
  •   2/11 - won by a previous winner of the race 
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 19/1

After applying those trends, we have ended up with a shortlist of four runners: Mr Vango, Git Maker, My Silver Lining and Whacker Clan.

Mr Vango has only had three chases and won at the second attempt in an eight-runner handicap at Exeter in February, before finishing a well beaten third behind Corbetts Cross in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last time, which was a big step up in class. 

Sara Bradstock’s eight-year-old is likely to be still improving and has proven he can stay forever, so it is not impossible for him to run into a place in a race of this nature.

Suggested each-way bet (1): Mr Vango in the Scottish Grand National (15:35 Ayr)


Git Maker was a creditable second behind short-priced favourite Inothewayurthinkin in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham last time and that represents his best form to date. 

The eight-year-old is consistent and has a decent winning strike rate with Jamie Snowden’s stable in reasonable form over the last two weeks. He is a sound jumper, and his price reflects his chances here, as he is still likely to be improving.

My Silver Lining was third in the Midlands Grand National behind Beauport and Mr Incredible at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, and now has a weight advantage over that winner. 

A month earlier, Emma Lavelle’s eight-year-old mare was also placed (runner-up behind Yeah Man) in the Grand National Trial at Haydock and won the Classic Chase at Warwick at Grade 3 level in her previous outing in January.

My Silver Lining is a very sound jumper and clearly has the class and stamina to compete in this marathon chase, and has a good chance of being thereabouts in the final stages.

Suggested each-way bet (2): My Silver Lining in the Scottish Grand National (15:35 Ayr)


Whacker Clan is an Irish raider, trained by Henry De Bromhead and this time is ridden by the excellent Rachel Blackmore, having finished a distant third behind Git Maker in the amateur riders’ Kim Muir. 
This capable eight-year-old would need to improve significantly to reverse placings with Git Maker, but perhaps the extra trip will bring out improvement.

This is an extremely competitive race and those with chances further up the weights include Beauport and Stay Away Fay, which are also sure to be competitive.

WATCH: Harry Cobden assesses his chances on Stay Away Fay and his other Ayr rides in his PlanetSportBet blog

As with all of these long-distance handicap chases, it is exceedingly difficult to pick the winner; however, by using the trends we can be reasonably confident that the shortlist will provide at least a place or two. 

Based on the trends alone I am suggesting each way bets on Mr Vango and My Silver Lining, and as usual be sure to  look around for best odds and extra places on offer from your bookmaker.

READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Ayr and Newbury for April 20


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