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  • Ascot Trends Best Bet: Arabian Storm Can Blow Rivals Away To Land Victoria Cup

Ascot trends best bet: Arabian Storm can blow rivals away to land Victoria Cup

After three days covering the Chester Festival, our resident trends analyst Andrew of Fiosrach turns his expert eye in the direction of the biggest race on Ascot’s Saturday card.

14:40 Ascot: Lavazza & Ascot 10 Year Anniversary Victoria Cup (7 furlongs)

After Chester’s unique circular track, we face a total change of course type as we move to the long straights of Ascot. 

Never one to shirk a challenge, I am tackling this 23-runner handicap run over seven furlongs, and as usual I will use the trends below to hopefully pinpoint the winner:

  • 17/20 – Had run within the last six weeks 
  • 17/20 – Aged five or younger 
  • 16/20 – Winning distance – two lengths or less 
  • 16/20– Had won no more than three times 
  • 16/20 – Had won over seven furlongs before 
  • 13/20 – Carried 8st-10lb or less 
  • 13/20 – Unplaced favourites 
  • 12/20 – Finished in the top four last time out 
  • 10/20 – Had run at Ascot before (six winners) 
  •   9/20 – Came from the top three in the betting 
  •   6/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out 
  •   4/20 – Winning favourites – only one in the last 14 years 
  •   9/10 – came from a double-figure draw

Having used the trends above I have ended up with the following shortlisted runners:

Arabian Storm has only had five starts and has won once and placed twice but remains open to improvement. 

He should be ridden prominently if he gets a good start in the capable hands of Oisin Murphy, who is a good judge of pace, so will probably tuck in behind the front few and wait for a gap. 

Andrew Balding’s stable remains in form and it will be interesting to see if Arabian Storm has improved from three to four years old.

Suggested best bet: Arabian Storm each-way in the 14:40 at Ascot

 

Mustajaab has had ten runs with three wins, although in his two Ascot outings, he has not finished closer than fifth.

He also has a low draw to contend with and that has proven to be a disadvantage in the last 12 runnings. If he had been drawn high, he would likely have been half his current price.

Pearle D’Or is a course-and-distance winner and has finished in the top three in each of his three efforts at Ascot.

Both the David O’Meara stable and the jockey are in great form, with Silvestre De Sousa enjoying his return to riding in the UK. 

Pearle D’Or was placed here in a Class 2 race in October and if he can replicate that form, then he should not be far away.

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Caragio has only won at Class 4 level, so this is a major step up in class. The Roger Teal string is among the winners without setting the world alight. Caragio is drawn in the middle so if the field splits, then John Egan will have a choice to go right or left.

I think Pearle D’Or will go close, but his price is too short in my view, which leaves me with a sneaking suspicion that Arabian Storm is going to be better than his bare form, especially as I think that Andrew Balding would have several horses to aim at this race. 

I am therefore suggesting an each-way bet on Arabian Storm, and as usual be sure to search for extra places and best prices.

 

READ MORE: Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Best bets for Lingfield, Ascot and Haydock on May 11

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