Ascot racing top tip: Trends pinpoint Zhiguli for each-way value in Gold Cup Chase
Annsam and jockey Adam Wedge bid to follow up their Ascot success
As UK racing battles with the elements, our trends analyst Andrew of Fiorach turns his expert eye to one of the big races at Ascot, where he hopes his pick will beat his rivals as well as the weather.
Perhaps the most difficult challenge this weekend is not finding winners, but finding a race meeting which is actually going to be on!
Assuming Ascot survives, there’s a few decent contests to ponder, and none more so than the penultimate race on the card, the Gold Cup Handicap Chase.
15.45 Ascot: Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase (3 miles)
Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if Beauport wins, get a £5 Free Bet!
As usual I have used the trends below to reduce the field of 12 to a handful to analyse further:
- 18/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 2m 4f
- 15/18 – Didn’t win last time out
- 13/18 – Had run at Ascot before (6 won)
- 12/18 – Carried over 10st-9lb
- 11/18 – Aged 8 or older
- 10/18 – Had won at least three times over fences
- 11/18 – Having their first run of the season
- 10/18 – Unplaced favourites
- 11/18 – Unplaced in their last race
- 10/18 – Winning distance of 4 lengths or more
- 9/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 3 miles
- 7/18 – Officially rated 135 to 138 inc.
- 6/18 – Returned double-figure betting odds
- 4/18 – Winning favourites
- 3/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
- 3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore (3 of the last 7)
- 2/18 – Ran at Sandown last time out
- 2/18 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
- 11/13 - Aged 9 or younger
Using those trends has eliminate ten of the field, leaving us with two contenders that appear to meet most of the vital criteria: Zhiguli and Flegmatik
Suggested bet: Zhiguli in the 15:45 at Ascot
Zhiguli comes from the Gary Moore stable (one of his two runners), and the Moore yard has a good record in this race with three winners in the last seven runnings.
The stable is also having a quiet time, but Zhiguli is very much ground dependent and all his wins have come on soft or heavy going, although he is two pounds above his last winning mark and has yet to win at this level.
He does have scope to improve, especially as he will relish his preferred going, plus he stays beyond 3 miles, which is going to be required on this ground ahead of Ascot’s testing uphill finish.
Flegmatik has had a wind operation to help with his breathing, a procedure he has undergone twice before, and both times duly came out and ran well on his return.
My chief concern about Flegmatik is that he is yet to win at Class 2 and that he remains nine pounds above his last winning mark. Dan Skelton does not have his string firing yet, which suggests that Flegmatik has place claims at best on this occasion.
The horse I really fancied for this at the five-day stage was Flash Collonges, but he ended up not being in the final declarations.
There are several other promising types in this race and challengers are likely to be the Irish raider Yeah Man and Much Mas.
However, based purely on the trends I am suggesting an each-way bet on Zhiguli to continue the stable’s excellent recent record in the race.
READ MORE: ITV racing tips: Best bets for Ascot and Wetherby
