Aintree racing top tip: Trends analysis picks out Born By The Sea for frame finish in Grand Sefton Chase
Grand National at Aintree
Saturday racing at Aintree means the National Hunt season is gaining momentum, and our trends analyst Andrew of Fiosrach has his eye on some each-way value in the biggest handicap chase of the day.
Our trends selection for Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup came a creditable sixth and with many bookmakers offering six places I hope you managed to get a decent return.
Interpretation reached a high of 100/1 at time of writing and was still 66/1 a few hours before the race before being sent off with a still tasty starting price of 40/1.
We did also mention Without A Fight as a potential winner and he ran out impressively to be more than two lengths clear at the line.
14:45 Aintree: BoyleSports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase (2 miles 5 furlongs)
On to Saturday and back over jumps at Aintree with the Grand Sefton Chase, which is run over two miles and five furlongs over the Grand National fences.
We have eleven runners to sift through using the trends below and hopefully we can find the winner:
- 17/18 – Had won 1-4 times over fences
- 16/18 – Aged 8 or older
- 16/18 – Rated 124 or more
- 14/18 – Had won (chase) over at least 2 miles 4furlongs
- 13/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
- 12/18 – Had run at Aintree before (5 over National fences)
- 11/18 – Carried more than 10st-11lb
- 10/18 – Irish bred
- 9/18 – Returned a double-figure price
- 8/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
- 4/18 – Winning favourites
- 3/18 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National
- 2/18 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
- 1/18 – Won last time out
- 14/17 - Aged 8 or 9 years old
- Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 10 runnings
Using these stats allows us to whittle the field down to three contenders: Born By The Sea, Cooper’s Cross, Fantastic Lady.
Suggested bet: Born By The Sea in the Grand Sefton (14:45 Aintree)
Born By The Sea is an Irish raider from Galway and was last seen in England coming a respectable sixth in the Grand National.
He seems to have a good chance here and has a recent run under his belt, and although he has a poor win record he does place consistently.
His main aim this term would appear to be another tilt at the Grand National again, and if this was last year, I would think he would not necessarily be trying to win, but with the National field to be reduced to 34 runners, he needs to start winning to secure a place in the race.
Cooper’s Cross is better over longer trips and was a very creditable second in the Scottish Grand National when last seen.
He is also better on a sounder surface and is eight pounds above his previous winning mark, so while I expect him to run well he may find the trip too sharp.
Fantastic Lady won first time out last season, but seems to prefer better ground, although she has won on soft as well.
She has a lot of weight to carry on this ground and is eight pounds above her last winning mark, so it will take a career-best performance to win this.
That said, the stable is in top form, and I am sure Fantastic Lady will give a good account of herself here.
There are some decent types eliminated by the trends such as Gesskille and Nassalam, but based on our analysis alone, we are suggesting going each-way on the Irish raider Born By The Sea, and as per usual, be sure to look for the enhanced value provided by extra places.
Suggested bet: Born By The Sea in the Grand Sefton (14:45 Aintree)
READ MORE: Saturday ITV racing tips: Best bets for Wincanton, Aintree and Newcastle
