Aintree racing tip (13:05): Favour And Fortune trending towards Formby Hurdle glory

 

13.05 Aintree: William Hill Formby Novices' Hurdle (2 miles 103 yards)

Our runner on Saturday, Switch Hitter, ran well enough to finish fifth at 18/1 and some of you may have got five places for a payout. I am putting him down as a loser though, as I only got four places.

I had intended to cover the Rowland Meyrick Chase from Wetherby, which had 22 probable runners at the five-day stage, but has dropped to a disappointing six scheduled starters! 

That leaves this competitive hurdle from Aintree as just about the only decent televised race with ten or more runners.

I have used the trends below to narrow the field for this prestigious Grade 1, which was previously run at Sandown:

• 18/19 – Won over at least 2 miles (hurdles) 
• 18/19 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race 
• 17/19 – Raced within the last six weeks 
• 17/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter 
• 17/19 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 
• 16/19 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles 
• 16/19 – Came from the top three in the market 
• 15/19 – Won last time out 
• 13/19 – Placed favourites 
• 11/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse 
• 10/19– Won by a horse aged 5 years old 
• 10/19 – Winning Favourites 
•   6/19 – Ran at either Sandown (4) or Newbury (2) last time out 
•   5/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable 
•   4/19 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable 
•   4/19 – Ran at Sandown before 
•   2/19 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable 
•   3/19 – Won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle later that season (Constitution Hill 2022, Summerville Bo, 2018, Noland 2006) 
•   1/19 - Won the Neptune Investment Hurdle later that season (Yorkhill 2016) 
• 25/31 - Won by 5 or 6 year-olds 

I was left with a shortlist of three runners: Favour And Fortune, Florida Dreams and Farren Glory.

Favour and Fortune has only been beaten once and that was in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham in March. He was very impressive winning a Class two at Wetherby last time and he looks to be a very smart horse. I was surprised that his odds were as big as 9/1 at the time of writing.

Suggested bet: Favour And Fortune in the 13:05 at Aintree

Florida Dreams won a bumper race here in April and has won one of two hurdle starts, looking impressive when winning last time. That win was in a Class four, but his bumper win was at Grade two, so there could be more improvement to come over hurdles.

Farren Glory has already won at Grade one level, when landing the Royal Bond on his latest start at Fairyhouse. Gordon Elliott stated that he thought it was a weak Grade one, but Farren Glory sets the standard here. 

If Farren Glory settles early in the race he should be hard to beat, but he might get lit up and I am always wary of first-time travellers (especially with the current windy conditions).

Interestingly a couple of the market leaders were ruled out on age, as 25 of the last 31 winners have been won by five or six-year-olds. Nicky Henderson has done well in this race, and he has the favourite in the early markets, Jango Baie, but he is a four-year-old, so was eliminated by the trends. 

Based solely on the trends and looking for a bit of value, I am suggesting an each-way bet on Favour And Fortune. As usual look around for the several bookmakers that are offering four places.

READ MORE: Boxing Day ITV racing tips: Best bets for Kempton, Aintree and Wetherby on December 26