Horse Racing

York trends analysis best bet: Back Andrew Balding to saddle the Ebor winner at big odds

Andrew of FiosrachAndrew Watson25 August 2023
York Ebor Festival August 24

York Ebor Festival August 24

Racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach lends his trends-based analysis to the Sky Bet Ebor on Saturday, August 26.

Our tip on Friday, Balance Play, sadly finished in the pack, while Austrian Theory our selection on Thursday got himself worked up into a lather before the race due to the inordinate amount of time it took to load the horses.

The race went off several minutes late and by that time Austrian Theory had already lost his race and finished midfield.
But after a good start to the Ebor Festival, I'm looking to land a winning blow on the last day of the meeting.
Onto the grand finale with the Ebor Handicap, after which the festival is named, and this has been the richest handicap race in Europe.
Due to the prize money, the standard of horses being entered has dramatically improved and several of these will go on to win Group races in the future.

I have used the trends below to reduce the field for the Sky Bet Ebor (Heritage Handicap) from twenty-two runners to four:

  • 20/21 - Aged 6 or younger
  • 18/21 - Carried 9-5 or less
  • 18/21 - Had won over at least 1m4f before
  • 17/21 - Won from a double-figure stall
  • 15/21 - Winning Distance - 1 length or less
  • 14/21 - Aged either 4 or 5 years old
  • 13/21 - Had 3 or more runs already that season
  • 13/21 - Unplaced favourites
  • 12/21 - Carried 9-1 or less
  • 11/21 - Had run at York before
  • 6/21 - Ran at Ascot last time out
  • 7/21 - Won last time out
  • 6/21 - Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 14)
  • 5/21 - Ran at Goodwood last time out
  • 3/21 - Ran at Galway last time out
  • 2/21 - Trained by Johnny Murtagh (2 of last 9)
  • 2/21 - Ridden by Jamie Spencer
  • 2/21 - Placed horses from stall 1 (third 2011, third 2013)
  • 2/21 - Winning favourites
  • 2/21 - Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 5)
  • Just two winning favourites since 1999
  • Since 1980, only one winner aged 7 or older 6 of the last 9 winners were aged 5 or 6 years old
Favourites have an awful record in this race with only two winning in the last twenty-four years, so I won't be rushing to take 7/2 about Sweet William with a penalty.
This was a difficult race to narrow down, but I eventually ended up with a shortlist of five horses:
Real Dream jockey Richard Kingscote nominated this race as a possible target after winning at Ascot. Ryan Moore takes the ride for his old boss Sir Michael Stoute here and if there is further improvement to come should be thereabouts.

Caius Chorister has not won at Class 2 level but has finished second in three good Class 2 handicaps including in the Melrose here last year.My main concern is he is rated twelve pounds above his highest winning weight, and he is paying for his consistency.

Good to firm going does suit and all his wins have been on that quick going. The best hope is for him to get a soft lead and to make all, as the course favours front runners.
Scampi has won at Class 2 level, albeit off a six pounds lower mark than in this race. I think that the penalty Scampi must carry for winning makes this difficult, but his trainer stated after the last win that the long-term aim had been the Ebor.
The horse has loads of stamina in his pedigree, so I do not have stamina worries for him despite the extra two furlongs.
Berkshire Rocco has a poor winning strike rate with only three wins in twenty-two career starts, although he has also finished second seven times.
I am more concerned about the field size for Berkshire Rocco as all three wins have been in races of seven runners or fewer. He has won off a mark nineteen pounds higher than this in a Listed race, but that was three years ago.
Adjuvant was second behind Sweet William (7/2 favourite here) at Goodwood and has a 25% winning strike rate and has six places in sixteen starts. Neither ground nor stamina is of concern it just comes down to the big question is he good enough?
Sweet William is a worthy favourite and certainly could be a group-winning horse going forward, but it was a tough slog on heavy ground at Goodwood and favourites have a poor record.
This has been very difficult to pick a candidate on trends and in the end, I am suggesting an each-way bet on Berkshire Rocco.

Look around for extra places and Berkshire Rocco will stay and looks to be too big a price for a horse that has won at a higher level. I will kick myself should his stablemate Scampi win, as I discounted him purely on price.

Suggested bet: Berkshire Rocco each-way in the 15:35 at York

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