Horse Racing

York trends analysis best bet: Alligator Alley has good each-way claims in Ebor Festival opener

Andrew of FiosrachAndrew Watson22 August 2023
York racecourse horse saddlecloth

York racecourse horse saddlecloth

Day one at York's Ebor Festival offers some fascinating contests, and the opener on the Knavesmire has racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach deploying his trends-based analysis.

13:50 York: Sky Bet and Symphony Group Handicap (5 and a half furlongs)

A trappy twenty runner handicap to start the four day York Ebor meeting, which has always been one of my favourite meetings of the Flat racing calendar.
I will use the trends below to try and reduce the field from twenty to a more manageable number for further analysis.

Planet Sport Bet: Bet £20+ cash on any runner in the race and if the favourite (including joint and co) wins, get a £5 Free Bet!

Saturday's selection It Just Takes Time missed out on the places by under two lengths after not starting as well as normal.

Hopefully a change in luck can see us unearth the winner in the opening race on Wednesday.

14/14 - Carried 8-12 or more

13/14 - Returned 7/1 or bigger in the betting

11/14 - Had won 5 or more times during their career

11/14 - Had run 6 or more times that season

11/14 - Had run at York before (6 won)

7/14 - Unplaced last time out

7/14 - Aged 5 or 6 years-old

6/14 - Ran at Goodwood last time out

3/14 - Trained by Kevin Ryan

1/14 - Winning favourites

3 of the last 13 winners came from stall 15

7 of the last 13 winners came from a single-figure stall

The trends reduced the runners to four:
Intrinsic Bond has improved significantly since switching to Michael Wigham with a good win and a decent second. He has gone up eight pounds in the weights but may have more improvement to come and the booking of Oisin Murphy looks like a positive.

Mondammej is one of those horses that seems to have been around for ever and is remarkably consistent horse, having finished in the top three in twenty of his forty races.

He has run in this race before finishing twelfth in last years' contest only four and a bit lengths behind the winner. He now runs nine pounds lower in the handicap, which must put him in the mix.

Alligator Alley is now nine pounds below his highest winning mark achieved in January this year and he has placed in both a Group 3 and a Listed race.

Daniel Tudhope could not be in much better form with a 32 per cent strike rate in the past fortnight and has ridden the horse to win twice already.

The faster the ground the better and a couple of drying days ahead could see good to firm before the first race, which would be ideal.

Bergerac won this race last year off a three pounds lower mark, but his last two runs have seen him beaten fourteen lengths in each.

That is hard to do in five furlong races and he would need a return to form to make an impact in this race. His trainer Kevin Ryan has a good record with three wins in the last fourteen runnings.

Any one of the four shortlisted by the trends could win this but I am suggesting an each-way bet on Alligator Alley who has won off higher marks and has placed at a higher level. Daniel Tudhope is one of the best jockeys around now, especially riding northern tracks.

Suggested bet: Alligator Alley each-way in the 13:50 at York

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