Horse Racing

Five down, 15 to go - who will qualify for the Kentucky Derby next?

Planet Sport writerStaff Writer11 March 2021
Kentucky Derby, 2020

Kentucky Derby, 2020

While the field for the Kentucky Derby is far from being set, there are at least five horses with enough qualifying points to gain invitations.

Several more are knocking on the door, but their chances for accumulating more points are beginning to dwindle.

There are 10 Kentucky Derby prep races left to be run in the United States, with two carrying 20-8-4-2 points, two with 50-20-10-5, and six that have the highest award totals at 100-40-20-10.
Not all of the top Derby candidates have committed to their next race, but many do know where they'll be hitting the track next.

Rematch in Louisiana

The most compelling 100-point race field announced so far is the Louisiana Derby on March 20 at The Fair Grounds in New Orleans.
At least five of the top contenders are already entered, and it's shaping up as a replay of the prior two prep races at the track, with the addition of other quality competition.

In the Lecomte and the Risen Star, the same three horses occupied the top spots but in different orders. After winning the 10-4-2-1 Lecomte Stakes over Proxy and Mandaloun, Midnight Bourbon wasn't able to follow it up in the 50-20-10-5 Risen Star Stakes.

Instead, Mandaloun punched his ticket to the Kentucky Derby while switching places with Midnight Bourbon. Proxy came in second both times.

The same three horses will run in the Louisiana Derby and will be joined by Rombauer and Hot Rod Charlie. For Midnight Bourbon, who has 26 points, and Proxy at 24, any finish better than fourth will most likely earn them an invitation to run at Churchill Downs on May 1.

Rombauer and Hot Rod Charlie, with 14 and 10 points, respectively, will need to get into the top two spots to have a chance.

Where we'll find the rest

This weekend's 50-20-10-5 $1,000,000 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park has a stellar field with Keepmeinmind (18 points), Caddo River (10), Get Her Number (10), Super Stock (4) and Concert Tour (0) entered.
With the 100-40-20-10 Arkansas Derby still to be run on April 10, these horses will get another opportunity at the same track to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, where Spielberg (17) is already expected to run.

Life Is Good is tied for the qualifying point lead with 60 and is assured of being in the Kentucky Derby field. The Bob Baffert Triple Crown favorite will be joined in the 100-40-20-10 Santa Anita Derby field at the track of the same name on April 3 by Medina Spirit (34) and Dream Shake, among others yet to be announced.

Also with 60 points is Greatest Honour, who will next face Known Agenda (2) and Prevalence (0) in the Florida Derby on March 27.
Weyburn (50), who shocked the horse racing world as a 46/1 longshot winner in the Gotham Stakes, will race next at the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3 on his way to the Kentucky Derby.
So far, Brooklyn Strong (10) has also been entered into the race that awards 100 points to the winner.
Essential Quality, with 40 points, is just on the cusp of qualifying, but his team isn't taking any chances, and the top contender will again be seen at the 100-40-20-10 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland on April 1.
Finally, surprise Tampa Bay Derby winner Helium (50) will be going directly to the Kentucky Derby, skipping any additional prep races.

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