Southwell horse racing tip: Stage is set for Big Impact
- Steve Jones
- 28 February 2023
After Monday's near miss in a race that was won by his next-best bet, Tipstrr racing expert Steve Jones is hoping for better from the aptly-named Big Impact in the last race of the night at Southwell.
Strangely only two among this field of older all-weather sprinters have ever won here before, one of whom, Ustath, hit form in a series of weak classified stakes here in January, but was well beaten over this trip ten days ago and hasn't placed in any of his last nine handicaps.
However, the other previous course winner, Big Impact, should be able to live up to his name under these conditions, after finishing three places and a couple of lengths in front of Ustath when finishing fifth of 13 in the aforementioned handicap.
A bit too keen in the early stages, Big Impact was still right in the firing line with a furlong to go but his early exertions took their toll and he was finally beaten off in the last half-furlong.
It was a stronger field than today's with the front pair both rated higher than any of this field and it was a very decent performance from Big Impact under the circumstances.
With Ryan Sexton in the saddle again today, Big Impact has a good chance from a very handy inside draw, not least because he is carrying two pounds less in weaker company.
His penultimate course-distance run came last November, again under Ryan Sexton, when the partnership contested an even stronger handicap when carrying four pounds more than here.
Big Impact was again a bit keen in the early part of the race and he also overcame some trouble to hit the front inside the final furlong only to be narrowly run out of the prize by a neck in the final strides.
The winner was the 65-rated short-priced favourite, and with a 66-rated sprinter behind him in third place, Big Impact was sandwiched between two higher-rated runners.
Here, carrying four pounds less under the same rider and from an almost identical draw, a repeat performance will give him a very good chance in what is a weak handicap.
Next best bet: Autumn Flight
Of the others, Autumn Flight, joined Phil McEntee in late January and promptly ran a series of three solid efforts in sprint handicaps on Tapeta.
His latest run on the Chelmsford Polytrack can be excused because it was in an upper-tier Class 5 and he missed the break.
He can be expected to bounce back in a much weaker race back on Tapeta, although his last four wins were achieved over five furlongs and he hasn't won over this trip since his three-year-old days.
