Horse Racing

Systematic betting: How to find that elusive winning formula

Andrew of FiosrachAndrew Watson7 July 2023
sport betting

sport betting

The Holy Grail of betting is a system that pays a decent return with the minimum of effort, and our racing analyst Andrew of Fiosrach offers his insight into how to find and maintain such a model.

Unfortunately there are several unscrupulous vendors out there promising to turn base metal into gold for unsuspecting bettors. 

The vast majority of systems for sale have either stopped making money or have been backfitted to show a set of results based upon complex rules to produce totally unrealistic profits.

Where to start

There are several database sites, through which you can use computer technology to employ multiple parameters and streamline your own set of rules.

If you already have a few rules in your mind that you think will deliver a profit, these can be entered into the solutions and the results are then populated in a series of tables. 

These can range from simple things like jockey and trainer name, sire or damsire, weight carried, starting price, course type, horse running style, etc.
Prior to the advances in computer science, I used to go through the Raceform Annuals to try and find winning combinations of trainer and jockey at certain times of year or at certain courses.
I have built systems, which generate between 60 and 200 points profit each year, but if you could find five such systems delivering 70 points each annually you then have 350 points profit coming in.
Personally, I look for systems that will deliver a year-in-year-out profit at Betfair SP, as that then will allow me to place the bets without fear of restrictions or account closure.
The systems I have built have different parameters, but in summary I have listed some of the ones I use:
The computer databases listed above cut down the time to build a profitable system to a matter of minutes instead of hundreds of hours of reading old race records.

The advent of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine-based Learning (ML) can only help improve the solutions out there, as the more data that is populated the more AI and ML solutions learn from the latest information. 

This enables systems to evolve over time, but if not using AI or ML I would always advise reviewing your system on at least an annual basis to make sure that the parameters are still relevant.
If things have changed (jockeys or trainer combinations, for instance), then adjust the system to ensure it is still up to date - this is basically manually adjusting in a way that AI and ML do automatically.

Please gamble responsibly

I am neither a magician nor an alchemist, so I do not promise that you will be able to turn base metal into gold, but you should hopefully find a way to build some profitable systems that can become a decent profit source.

As with all betting, we always advise that you only ever bet with money that you can afford to lose and have a separate betting bank for each system.
My advice is to test, evaluate and proof the system first without risking your funds.

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