Sunday Navan top racing tip: History Of Fashion trending towards second career win
Navan
Tipstrr horse racing pundit has cast his expert eye over the Irish Sea, where he suggests that History Of Fashion offers better value than the favourite over the jumps at Navan.
It is no surprise to see Gavin Cromwell's six-year-old, Sweet Will, at the head of the early market after his near-miss at Fairyhouse last month, which saw him finish runner-up in a 21-furlong handicap (on soft-heavy) with the front pair pulling a long way clear of the rest.
It was only Sweet Will's second run over fences, his first coming back in April last year when he won a 14-runner handicap by 3.25 lengths (on good-yielding) at Kilbeggan. The well-beaten runner-up subsequently advertised the form, winning a Class 3 handicap at Perth.
On his latest run over hurdles, Sweet Will won an 18-runner 0-124 handicap over 21 furlongs on the testing track at Cheltenham, a win made all the more impressive coming just three days after winning a 16-runner handicap hurdle over 23f at Fairyhouse, where he did his strongest work in the closing stages, suggesting he can stay three miles without a problem.
He has plenty of potential but one who can beat him today is History Of Fashion, who gave a strong hint that he is about to bounce right back to form.
16:10 (Navan) History Of Fashion
His latest run, in which he finished fifth of 10 in a decent 0-131 handicap at Fairyhouse (22.7 furlongs on heavy), was easily his best since March last year.
He wasn't far behind the places despite being ridden by an amateur rider with a very low 4% strike rate and it was a good effort considering the heavy ground would have been against him.
With Danny Mullins replacing the amateur who rode him last time, History Of Fashion looks set to return to the sort of form he was showing early last year.
His two completed starts in the first part of last year saw him win a three-mile handicap (on yielding) at Down Royal (another undulating, testing track) by no less than eight lengths from ten 0-123 rivals before then recording what is still a career-best performance over today's course and distance a few weeks later.
Off a mark of 128 (6lbs higher than today), History Of Fashion finished third of 11 (on soft) in what was a valuable Grade B handicap (the EBF Novice Handicap Chase Final).
He missed second place by under two lengths, behind a winner, Velvet Elvis, who is currently rated 140 (well above today's standard).
That was a far stronger handicap than today's and the front trio pulled well clear of the rest of the field, so a similar performance off today's lower mark in this significantly weaker affair would clearly give History Of Fashion a big chance.
He has had only two completed starts since that day, including his aforementioned recent run at Punchestown, so he looked excellent value at an opening price of 12/1 in this easier race, although that value is diminishing as market support increases.
- Tip advised at 12/1 by Steve Jones who provides racing tips as CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr
