Saturday Sandown racing tips: Trends analysis points to three-way race for Tolworth Novices' Hurdle

Horse racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach has been weighing historical trends against current form to identify the main contenders in Saturday's big hurdle race at Sandown.

The Tolworth is a Grade 1 Novices' Hurdle run at Sandown at 2.25 on Saturday afternoon, a competitive race that has produced the winner of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival three times in the last eighteen years.

This includes Constitution Hill last season, and he is the odds-on favourite for the Champion Hurdle this season.

The following trends analysis is based upon key factors of previous winners, and I have used the data from the last eighteen runnings to create a shortlist to consider for betting purposes.

14:25 (Sandown) Trends analysis

  • 17/18 - Placed first or second in their last race
  • 17/18 - Raced within the last 42 days
  • 17/18 - Won over at least two-miles hurdles before
  • 16/18 - Priced 5/1 or shorter
  • 16/18 - Won by horse aged five or six years old
  • 15/18 - Top three in the market
  • 15/18 - 1-2 wins over hurdles previously
  • 14/18 - Won last time out
  • 11/18 - Irish-bred horse
  • 10/18 - Won by a horse aged five years old

Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson stables have each won this race four times in the last eighteen years.

Having gone through the eight runners with the trends above, along with another eight or so, I ended up with a two-horse shortlist of Arctic Bresil and Authorised Speed.

One approach could be to split your stake proportionately (Dutch) across the two contenders to win a set amount - the former is currently listed at 11/4 and the latter is joint favourite at 9/4.

I prefer to carry out further form-based analysis to try and find the winner, and that then brings in Tahmuras from the Paul Nicholls' stable.

Tahmuras missed out on the trends-based two-horse list due to not having run in the last 42 days, but on form I would say is the most likely winner.

Another horse of interest is Blow Your Wad, as the only five-year-old in the race and being Irish-bred, but on form is perhaps a level or two below this.

Personally, I do not yet see enough value among the top three contenders to consider having a bet in the race.

I might consider backing Tahmuras, as he has the best form in the race after having won at Listed level last time out, but only if he were to reach 2/1 in the betting.

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