Horse Racing

Saturday Newbury top tip: Lostintranslation set to hit the ground running

Tipstrr writertipstrr26 November 2022
Paint The Dream ridden by jockey Connor Brace clear a fence on their way to winning the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury Racecourse, Berkshire.

Paint The Dream ridden by jockey Connor Brace clear a fence on their way to winning the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Newbury Racecourse, Berkshire.

The top race of the day, the Newbury Gold Cup, sees Lostintranslation return to action, and a Tipstrr racing expert suggests that he could hit the ground running on his season debut.

Lostintranslation is an exposed 10-year-old gelding who has the experience of 25 previous outings to draw upon, including success over today's course and distance.

There will need to be some improvement for him to challenge for this extremely competitive race, but a good starting point is that jockey Freddie Gingell has made the frame in nine out of fifteen runs since October, and is booked to strip 7lbs in Lostintranslation's seasonal debut.

That puts him 12lbs lower than his Ultima run at Cheltenham, and while he has plenty to find with a number of today's rivals, it does level up the terms.

15:05 (Newbury) Lostintranslation

The horse last ran eight months ago in the Aintree Grand National, where he showed his jumping prowess to complete the testing course without ever making an impression.

However, he did go well fresh when winning a Grade 2 almost exactly a year ago, and he does also look happier when he can hear his hooves on decent ground.

Interestingly, his reappearance record after extended breaks reads 22131, and the fact that trainer Joe Tizzard decided to sidestep a few recent engagements to be fresh here suggests that this race has been taken extremely seriously.

With Gingell's 7lb claim taking him down to just 10st 11lb, this will be Lostintranslation's lowest career weight carry, and his record saddling less than 11st 2lbs reads 131122.

On top of that, the form on today's three-and-a-quarter-mile distance reads 331, not including the run at Cheltenham in March, where the horse was pulled up.

Furthermore, the ten-year-old seems to enjoy the Newbury track, having performed well on three from five runs, winning once, so everything points to a strong performance this afternoon.

The odds on offer for Lostintranslation at the time of writing are hovering around 18/1 and that appears far too generous to turn down. With conditions expected to be good, on which the horse ran once and won, a market price of 10/1 would seem more appropriate and anything above that offers good each way value.

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