Horse Racing

Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Best bets for Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster

Nigel RidgwayNigel Ridgway4 March 2022
Ahoy Senor on his way to winning at Newbury last month

Ahoy Senor on his way to winning at Newbury last month

The ITV cameras are rolling at three meetings on Saturday and we've got these nicely covered with a tip of each of the ten live races.

In addtion to giving you our selections and the reasons behind behind them, we'd also recommend you pay the Planet Sport Live Centre a visit as that is where you'll find the highly informative race cards for Newbury, Kelso and Doncaster.

Selections:

Kauto Riko (13.15 Newbury)

Bold Endeavour (13.32 Kelso)

Farinet (13.50 Newbury)

Famous Bridge (14.05 Kelso)

Holly Hartingo (14.20 Doncaster)

Windsor Avenue (14.40 Kelso)

The Big Bite (14.55 Doncaster)

Severance each-way (15.15 Kelso)

Legends Gold each-way (15.30 Doncaster)

Seemorelights (15.43 Kelso)

13.15 Newbury - Kauto Riko

Aso and Indy Five head the market for this 3m2f veterans' chase after fine runs last time out, the former off top weight at Exeter, which is the case here also, but they were disappointing on their previous starts - both were pulled up - and that inconsistency makes me want to look elsewhere for some value.
Kauto Riko is a horse I tipped up and backed on his reappearance over 3m at Doncaster in December and he went down by half a length to Two For Gold. That form looks even better now with the winner going on to land a valuable chase at Lingfield before chasing home Fakir D'oudaries in the Betfair Ascot Chase.
Tom Gretton's 11-year-old has since been pulled up in a red-hot Cheltenham handicap run over shorter and faced an impossible task on his most recent start on Cheltenham Trial's Day, when plugging on into fourth behind Chantry House in receipt of just 4lb.
It's pretty safe to say the fire still burns and he's undeniably on a mark (139, has been as high as 147) he can win off given a suitable opportunity.
With his conditional rider Kieren Buckley claiming 5lb off his back and in the hope he stays the extra two furlongs of this race, he's given another chance this afternoon at decent odds.

13.32 Kelso - Bold Endeavour

Forecast favourite North Lodge has made a perfect start to his hurdles career with a game win at Aintree on his debut followed by a Grade 2 success at Cheltenham in January, and a win in this Grade 2 would book his ticket in the Ballymore.
However, he does have a 5lb penalty to carry, meaning he's giving weight away to some equally exciting novices with winning form, and as a son of Presenting he perhaps wouldn't want the ground to get too testing. The weather forecast is not overly encouraging in that respect.
Richmond Lake wasn't far behind him in that Aintree race and is entitled to overturn that form on today's terms, so it's no surprise to see him chalked up as favourite given he has progressed since and ran well under a positive ride when finishing a three-lengths second behind Jonbon on his most recent outing.
But he looks plenty short enough given the strength of the opposition and Bold Endeavour, who is rated 1lb his superior, makes more appeal.
Laura Mongan's six-year-old is already the winner of a point (changed hands for £190,000 afterwards), a bumper and two hurdles, the latest a career-best at Wetherby where he went clear from a decent field and in a time similar to a later handicap won by a 135 plus handicapper.
Like several of these, he's an embryonic chaser who will be suited by further in time, so he should be strong at the finish, and his stable is absolutely flying with seven winners form 16 runners in the last fortnight at the time of writing. He'll do for me.

13.50 Newbury - Farinet

Dublin Four looks a worthy favourite for this 2m4f handicap chase having won both his chase starts at the track, including one over today's trip on his seasonal reappearance in November, and he was still in contention when falling at Ludlow subsequently.

But he is suited by good ground, which is far from guaranteed (soft at the time of writing), and his trainer Fergal O'Brien believes he is better over 3m, so there are enough doubts there to make me look elsewhere.
Three of his fancied rivals - namely Senior Citizen, Tamaroc Du Mathan and Glen Forsa - are also considered to be good-ground performers and the latter might have stamina issues, whereas Farinet likes it soft and gets the nod on the proviso that it's no faster than 'good to soft' on the day.
This is a better race, admittedly, but he's less exposed than some and should be able to rate a little higher than his current mark of 137, which might not be enough to get him into the two Cheltenham Festival handicaps he's entered in. A win today would sort that.
Venetia Williams' seven-year-old clearly failed to see out 3m at Sandown last time and is best judged by his previous comfortable success at the same track, where he jumped well and kept on strongly up the hill to score off top weight.

14.05 - Famous Bridge

Wilde About Oscar ran a little better at Huntingdon last time out, having looked way below his best in two previous outings, and if he can build on that latest effort he won't too far away in this 2m5f handicap despite top weight.

But it's hard to ignore the claims of Nicky Richards' Famous Bridge, who was backed to make a winning handicap debut at a meeting here in early February, only to unseat his rider two out just after taking the lead and looking sure to go on and justify favouritism.
His previous from reads well and includes a solid second in a Kelso novice, when trying to defying a penalty for his previous Ayr win, and he's almost certainly better than his current handicap mark of 118, meaning he has just 10st 3lb on his back this afternoon with Brian Hughes renewing the partnership.
I always try and find a reason to take on favourites but I'll make an exception in his case as I think he's by far the most likely winner.

14.20 Doncaster - Holly Hartingo

Dan Skelton's Get A Tonic is odds-on favourite for this mares' novices' hurdle run over an extended 3m1f and that's understandable as she split Marie's Rock and Indefatigable in a Listed contest at Warwick on her most outing, when much worse off with that pair if meeting them in a handicap.
But the form of that four-runner affair, which turned into a sprint, perhaps flatters her and she also has to prove she stays this far having done all her winning over half a mile less. At the odds, she has to be taken on.
Miss Fairfax looked a thorough stayer when scoring in easy fashion over 3m at Catterick last month, albeit she was long odds-on, while Gazette Bourgeoise is another with stamina on her side having improved for the step up to this sort of distance.
However, at bigger odds I'm going to chance on Alastair Ralph's Holly Hartingo, who arrives here having won both her starts over hurdles against fellow novices, the latest when beating subsequent scorer Hillfinch under a penalty and giving the impression she was worth a chance in better company.
She has Miss Fairfax behind in third when scoring on her debut at Ludlow in December so she doesn't deserve to be twice the odds of that mare, especially as she has plenty of scope to improve further on what is just here third start under Rules and now stepping up in trip.

14.40 Kelso - Windsor Avenue

Espoir De Romay is by the best of these on official ratings, with upwards of 9lb in hand over his six rivals, but he's not been seen out since finishing a tired third at Carlisle in November, when appearing to need the run, and this is likely a prep for a race at the Grand National meeting.
Itchy Feet is next in the betting and he'll surely be thereabouts as he rarely runs a bad race, but it's over two years since he last won and Windsor Avenue is preferred at bigger odds.
Brian Ellison's ten-year-old arrives here on the back of a career-best effort in first-time blinkers at Doncaster, where he travelled strongly throughout, jumped soundly and won going away from 15 rivals.
The headgear clearly made a big difference to him and providing it works again, he's going to be a tough nut to crack here give he's a strong stayer over this trip - connections have the Grand National in mind - and with race fitness on his side.

14.55 Doncaster - The Big Bite

The Big Bite put a couple of non-completions behind him when dead-heating for second in a class 2 handicap run here in January, and that appeals as strong form as the winner Funambule Sivola, who had three lengths to spare at the line, has since beaten Sceau Royal in the Grade 2 Game Spirit Chase.

A repetition of that effort off the same mark this afternoon would almost certainly be good enough and while his trainer Henry Oliver has struggled for winners this season (5-79), he's had three seconds, two at double-figure odds, in the last fortnight.
Of his eight rivals, the returning Malystic is feared most and especially if the market speaks in his favour.
Peter Niven's seven-year-old was a smart novice chaser on quicker tracks like this one, winning twice, and his second to Protektorat off level weights at Carlisle in October 2020 is clearly a standout piece of form. He's had wind surgery since last seen out.

15.15 Kelso - Severance each-way

This valuable 2m handicap hurdle, known as the "Morebattle", sees the return to action of former dual champion hurdler Buveur D'Air, but he'll surely be better for the run having been out of action since Aintree last spring.
Metier is preferred in the betting having returned to winning ways in a valuable Lingfield handicap in January, when taking advantage of a lenient handicap mark - he's now 7lb higher - and again showing his liking for deep ground.
The more rain the better for him but this is hugely competitive and one that grabs the eye at the foot of the weights is the Ben Pauling-trained Severance, who has just half a length to find with Cormier on their running at Cheltenham on Trial's day (they finished 1-2) and is slightly better off here.
That race contained five last-time-out winners, so the form looks strong, and the selection, who only gave best late on having travelled nicely throughout, almost certainly has further improvement in him after just six starts over hurdles.
A well-run race over 2m seems to suit him best as he has tended to race too freely over further, and that looks on the cards here, while the booking of Brian Hughes, who is 1-3 for the stable, takes the eye. All in all he's a cracking each-way price.

15.30 Doncaster - Legends Gold each-way

The 3m2f Grimthorpe Chase is likely to be run at a fast clip with three confirmed front-runners in the field.
Cloth Cap is almost going to adopt his favoured front-running tactics but he will face competition for the lead from the current favourite Le Milos, who produced a gritty display when making all at Sandown last time, and habitual front-runner Storm Control.
The latter horse made virtually all when scoring at Newbury two starts back and then finished second in a good-quality handicap over 3m here under his 5lb penalty, when he squandered a five-lengths lead after the last by wandering under his claiming rider Daire McConville.
He's still the one of the trio I like most, with McConville reducing his burden by 10lb, but I'm going to roll the dice and take a chance on rank outsider Legends Gold, who has twice hinted this season that she has a decent staying prize in her.
A staying-on third over 3m at Bangor on her reappearance, behind subsequent Becher Chase winner Snow Leopardess and Windsor Avenue (my pick for Kelso's Premier Chase run earlier) reads very well indeed, as does her third behind the now 145-rated Silver Forever in a Listed race at Newbury.

Since then, Rebecca Curtis' mare has finished a gifted second at Ludlow, where the horse that would have filled that spot fell, and was then pulled up at Wincanton just ten days later, with connections saying afterwards that the race may have come too soon. We can forgive her that.

Having been dropped 2lb by the handicapper, she gets in here off bottom weight and given how the race is set to be run, it's not a huge stretch of the imagination to see her staying on late to grab the spoils, or at least one of the three places.

15.43 Kelso - Seemorelights

Likely favourite Hardy Du Seuil might find ground conditions going against him having won twice on good this season and not appearing to handle soft ground at Haydock last time. He's also had jumping issues, failing to complete twice.
All six of his rivals have claims besides and the one that makes most appeal is the veteran Seemorelights, who has looked as good as ever this season, backing up an Ayr win in January with a solid second at the same track 18 days ago.
That latest effort can be marked up as he had top weight to carry and was conceding 22lb to the winner, a task that was made tougher by the prevailing heavy ground.
The handicapper has left him on the same mark of 122, which is 6lb lower than his hurdle rating, and Ryan Mania, who was on board for the Ayr success, is replacing a conditional rider. There's lots to like then.

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