Saturday Haydock tip analysis: Trends point to popular favourite for the Peter Marsh Chase
Tipstrr racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach assesses Saturday's big Class 1 chase at Haydock, where his trends-based analysis has identified his likely winner of what promises to be a competitive race.
His two articles based on trend analysis published to date have proven successful with two impressive winners at 5/2 and 6/4.
The Peter Marsh Handicap Chase is a Class 1 race for five-year-olds and over, and is run over three miles, one furlong and 125 yards. Saturday's going is forecast to be heavy if and when the ground thaws sufficently to pass that 8am inspection.
Should this race go ahead, then a number of trends help point towards a likely winner in this race and the main ones are as follows:
With only six runners entered at the final declaration stage, those trends whittled our contenders down to a very short list of two - Fontaine Collonges and Dr Kananga.
14.40 (Haydock) Fontaine Collonges
Dr Kananga is likely to run from the front, and my main concerns about him are his hugely disappointing run at Aintree last time, which was his second run after a wind operation, and he has not won over fences on going as heavy as this.
The stable has not had a runner in the last two weeks, but has sent Dr Kananga all the way from Dorset for this, despite not having won above Class 3 over fences.
Fontaine Collonges does fare best on the trends and has a course and distance win to her name, plus she has won on heavy ground. She has not yet won at Graded level, but won a decent Class 2 over course and distance in November last year.
The biggest threat to all is the twelve-year-old Bristol De Mai, who is a Haydock specialist who has secured six of his ten wins at this course.
If Bristol De Mai gets into a jumping rhythm he could be hard to pass despite his age. I do think as he gets older he probably needs a longer trip than this, and he has only managed two wins in more than four years.