Saturday Haydock tip analysis: Trends point to popular favourite for the Peter Marsh Chase

Tipstrr racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach assesses Saturday's big Class 1 chase at Haydock, where his trends-based analysis has identified his likely winner of what promises to be a competitive race.

Fiosrach is run by multi-award-winning tipster Andrew, who was the founder and main tipster at Cleeve Racing. Profits were made in every season when Andrew was tipping at Cleeve, and he was admitted into the Secret Betting Club Hall of Fame in 2019.

His two articles based on trend analysis published to date have proven successful with two impressive winners at 5/2 and 6/4.

You can access Fiosrach 's selections at Tipstrr for a bargain trial price for the rest of January 2023.

Haydock is subject to an 8am inspection on Saturday morning, but officials are hopeful that the meeting will go ahead if temperatures do not drop further than expected.

The Peter Marsh Handicap Chase is a Class 1 race for five-year-olds and over, and is run over three miles, one furlong and 125 yards. Saturday's going is forecast to be heavy if and when the ground thaws sufficently to pass that 8am inspection.

Should this race go ahead, then a number of trends help point towards a likely winner in this race and the main ones are as follows:

  • 18/18 - Won previously on ground described as soft or worse
  • 17/18 - Ran within the last six weeks
  • 16/18 - Carried 11st-3lb or less in weight
  • 16/18 - Had run within the last 36 days
  • 16/18 - Aged eight or older
  • 13/18 - Officially Rated 139 or higher
  • 13/18 - Won at Haydock previously
  • 12/18 - Won at least three times over fences previously
  • 12/18 - Carried 10st-12lb or less in weight
  • 12/18 - Favourites unplaced
  • 11/18 - Won before (fences) over at least thre miles
  • 10/18 - Irish bred
  • 10/18 - Finished in the top three in their last race
  • 10/18 - Won over fences at Haydock before
  • 9/18 - Won between 3-5 times over fences before
  • 9/18 - Aged either eight or nine years old

With only six runners entered at the final declaration stage, those trends whittled our contenders down to a very short list of two - Fontaine Collonges and Dr Kananga.

14.40 (Haydock) Fontaine Collonges

Dr Kananga is likely to run from the front, and my main concerns about him are his hugely disappointing run at Aintree last time, which was his second run after a wind operation, and he has not won over fences on going as heavy as this.

The stable has not had a runner in the last two weeks, but has sent Dr Kananga all the way from Dorset for this, despite not having won above Class 3 over fences.

Fontaine Collonges comes from the Venetia Williams stable, which has a good record over fences when the ground becomes heavy.

Fontaine Collonges does fare best on the trends and has a course and distance win to her name, plus she has won on heavy ground. She has not yet won at Graded level, but won a decent Class 2 over course and distance in November last year.

The biggest threat to all is the twelve-year-old Bristol De Mai, who is a Haydock specialist who has secured six of his ten wins at this course.

All six of those wins were in Graded contests and three were at Grade 1, with another two wins coming in this very contest back in 2016 and 2017.

If Bristol De Mai gets into a jumping rhythm he could be hard to pass despite his age. I do think as he gets older he probably needs a longer trip than this, and he has only managed two wins in more than four years.

The selection for this race based on the trends and the opposition is Fontaine Collonges, as she has more scope than the majority of these to improve.

Learn more about Fiosrach by visiting his profile page at Tipstrr

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