Horse Racing

Saturday Newbury tip analysis: Trends give Eldorado Allen the edge in Denman Chase

Andrew of FiosrachAndrew Watson10 February 2023
newbury racecourse

newbury racecourse

Ahead of the Denman Chase at Newbury, Tipstrr racing analyst Andrew of Fiosrach has been studying some trends that suggest that Eldorado Allen might just have what it takes to beat favourite Hitman.

14.25 (Newbury) Betfair Denman Chase

A disappointing entry for this excellent chase sees only seven runners scheduled to go to post.

Considering this race has produced four winners of the Cheltenham Gold Cup in the last nineteen years, it seems even more ridiculous that only seven will be lining up on Saturday.
Those winners were Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star and Native River - what a quartet!
I have used the trends below to narrow the field even further:

Those trends trim the field down to the following three runners: Eldorado Allen, Does He Know and Sam Brown.

I then looked deeper into the trends and eliminated Does He Know on the grounds of not having a run in the last six or seven weeks, and eliminated Sam Brown on his lack of wins over fences, with only three chase wins to his name.

The favourite for this race at 7/4 is the Paul Nicholls-trained Hitman, which was last seen pulling up in the King George on Boxing Day.

This was his first try over three miles and he was reported to have bled from his nose, which is usually a sign of a horse becoming stressed, possibly caused by a Grade One pace or the extra trip.

That incomplete race aside, Hitman falls down on several of the trends above - the trip, number of chase wins and not winning last time out, plus he has only won at Class 2 level over fences.

However, Hitman comes from a stable with an almost 50 per cent win record in the race over the last nineteen seasons, and favourites boast a good record in the race.

I would not be in a rush to back Hitman at 7/4 or indeed anything below 3/1, especially after his issue in the King George.
The final horse left from our shortlist is Eldorado Allen, who is older than ideal but ticks a lot of the other trends above.
He beat Royal Pagaille to win this race last season and has previously beaten Hitman in the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup over a much shorter trip.
Eldorado Allen has won over the trip and has won three times over fences at Grade 2 level, so we are not asking him to do anything unusual.
My only concern about him is the stable form which, at the time of writing reads 0-35 in the last two weeks.

However, all things considered, if I were betting on this race I would be more interested in Eldorado Allen at 11/4 rather than Hitman at 7/4.

Andrew provides horse racing tips and analysis as Fiosrach on the Tipstrr platform

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