Horse Racing

Royal Ascot Gold Cup ante post betting tips: Subjectivist a good price to rekindle former glories

Andrew of FiosrachAndrew Watson9 June 2023
Subjectivist ridden by Joe Fanning

Subjectivist ridden by Joe Fanning

Royal Ascot is almost upon us, and the attention of our racing analyst Andrew of Fiosrach has already been drawn towards a former winner as his best value ante post bet for the coveted Gold Cup.

Thursday June 22 16.20 Ascot - 2 miles 4 furlongs Gold Cup (Class 1)

First run over 200 years ago, the Gold Cup has become one of the most prestigious distance races in the UK racing calendar and is run on the Thursday of the Royal Ascot meeting, which this year is June 22.

Contested over just shy of two and half miles it is Flat racing's Blue Riband event for stayers and has thrown up some notable winners in recent years.

Stradivarius and Frankie Dettori completed a notable hat-trick of wins for John Gosden in 2020, and even that pales against Aidan O'Brien's remarkable four-time winner Yeats, who led the field home under three different jockeys between 2006 and 2009.
Last year's winner Kyprios is not among the 22 provisional entrants, and although the final declarations are not yet known, I have attempted to find an ante-post selection by using trends from the past twenty years.

Using the trends above distance, class and age removed many the currently twenty-two declared runners and left us with the following five: Subjectivist, Coltrane, Trueshan, Courage Mon Ami and Eldar Eldarov

Suggested ante post bet: Subjectivist each-way in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot

Subjectivist

Subjectivist won this race impressively two years ago and has got better once tried over 1 mile 7.5 furlongs and longer, where his record is three wins from four runs, including two at Group 1.

Unlike Trueshan (see below), Subjectivist handles all going and would not mind it being good to firm. I think his current forecast price of 10/1 underestimates his chances and previous winners have a good record in this race.

Coltrane

Coltrane won a Group 3 impressively at Chester and won the Ascot Stakes at last season's Royal Ascot meeting over this course and distance.
Andrew Balding, his trainer, suggested after winning at Doncaster at the St. Leger meeting that he could be a Gold Cup horse, but is yet to win at Group 1 level.

Trueshan

Trueshan has won the distance cup in the last two seasons on Champions Day and clearly likes the course, although he needs good-to-soft going or preferably worse to show his best.
If the weather was to turn in his favour, he definitely would not be the current 20/1 forecast. His record of three wins from four starts at Ascot makes him one to consider if he gets his ground.

Courage Mon Ami

Courage Mon Ami probably should be ruled out on age, but the Gosden yard has a good record in this race, especially in recent years.
He has only had three runs and none of them above Class 2, so you would need to take his breeding on trust to be as good as he needs to be to compete in Group 1 company.
The trainer will know if his horse is up to this level and if he takes his place on the day should not be counted out, although his lack of experience leaves a question mark.

Eldar Eldarov

Eldar Eldarov won the St. Leger in September and shaped like a decent horse despite his lack of experience.

His age and his lack of experience further than a mile and six furlongs put me off his chances, but if he stays, he should be somewhere close to the top three.
I am hoping that on the day there is a field of at least ten runners, but if we place a bet now, we will get three places regardless of how many run on the day.

Verdict

To sum up, I am suggesting an each way bet on Subjectivist to follow up on his 2021 success and his run in Meydan gives me confidence he is nearing a return to that form.

He is currently 10/1 with all bookmakers and that is about four points longer than he should be in my view, so he definitely provides value.
Suggested bet: Subjectivist each-way in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot (ante post)

*** IMPORTANT Please note that ante post stakes can be lost if your selection does not run, so please check your bookmakers' terms before betting

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