Northumberland Plate betting tip: Trends point towards Golden Rules
Newcastle racecourse
Andrew of Fiosrach has run the rule over the Northumberland Plate Handicap at Newcastle on Saturday and shared a trends-based betting tip.
Newcastle 14:05: Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate Handicap
The Northumberland Plate Handicap, also known as the Pitman's Derby due to Newcastle's historical links with the mining industry, is one of the richest handicaps in the world.
Last year's winner, Trueshan, bucked the trends due to the weight he carried, but class told in the end.
I have used the following trends to narrow down the field from the twenty horses entered:
Note: Since 2016, the Northumberland Plate has taken place on the all-weather track at Newcastle.
After analyzing the trends of the runners, I narrowed down my choices to the following three:
Omniscient won last time out in a Class 4 race and was eased down towards the finish. He has leapt eight pounds and has not run for 270 days since.
The lack of a run is not overly concerning as his trainer is adept at getting a horse in good shape after a break, but not winning above Class 4 and the increase in weight is a concern.
Adjuvant has won at the Class 3 level and was second in a good Class 2 a couple of runs back. He has also run well with a claimer riding including the excellent Billy Loughnane, who rides on Saturday.
My only concern is that he lacks any all-weather experience and the kickback may take him by surprise.
Golden Rules won a Class 3 race last time after a 638-day break which was a superb training performance from his new trainer Debbie Faulkner.
He will stay which is a plus and if coping with a potential bounce after running after a long break, then Golden Rules should be thereabouts. He has Oisin Murphy onboard who won on him in his comeback race.
The trend selection for the Northumberland Plate is
Golden Rules and I suggest an each-way bet and look for extra places.
Suggested bet: Golden Rules to win the Northumberland Plate Handicap
