Newbury each-way racing tip: Using trends to whittle down the Hackwood Stakes field
Pat Dobbs hits the front before winning the 18.40 KKA Studio Novice Stakes on Baheer at Newbury - July 2023
Andrew of Fiosrach is back with his top trends analysis and this weekend he's tackled the Bet365 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.
15:00 (Newbury) - Hackwood Stakes
After the Super Saturday last weekend where there were so many excellent races, we are met with a dearth of good racing this Saturday.
Frankly, it was difficult to find a race to analyse using trends, as the big handicap race of the day has only had five previous runnings.
Last weekend's runners were disappointing mainly due to the massive change in going with the rains arriving in much greater volumes and earlier than expected.
I have used the following trends to try and reduce the field of thirteen to a more manageable number for further analysis:
Lezoo is one of several three-year-olds in the race and gets both age and sex allowances, which gets her in here off a very favourable weight.
She has a massive pull at the weights against the older horses and is already a winner at Group 1 level having won the Cheveley Park Stakes last season.
She has disappointed on her two starts this season and the question is has she trained on at three?
Rohaan has won at Group 2 and 3 level and is at his best with cut in the ground; however, he seems to save his best form for Ascot having won 4 of his nine wins there.
Suggested bet:
Rohaan each-way in the 15:00 at Newbury
He ran at Ascot last Saturday and three lengths back in seventh over an inadequate five furlongs.
He should improve for the step back up to six furlongs, as none of his nine wins have been at the minimum trip. Perhaps last week's run was a sharpener for this?
Cold Case has a lot to find on ratings with Lezoo but has at least won this season when winning the Group 2 Commonwealth Cup trial at Ascot in May.
He will handle any further rain and if it dries out will be comfortable on good ground.
Both his stable and jockey are in excellent form, and I do expect Cold Case to run well; however, the ten pounds pull at the weights against Lezoo may prove too much.
If Lezoo manages to return to last season's form I would expect her to win thanks to the allowances she receives, but I am going to select the more experienced Rohaan who I think has been sharpened up last weekend for this race.
Any more rain will help his cause and he is an each-way bet at a price of about 8/1 currently.
Suggested bet:
Rohaan each-way in the 15:00 at Newbury
