A beginner's guide to horse racing betting methodology from a seasoned pro
Expert horse racing tipster and analyst Andrew of Fiosrach, shares some invaluable personal insights on how to bet safely and profitably over an extended period.
Simpler times
When you entered the mysterious world, you were met by a foggy mix of cigarette smoke and body odour. There were no TV screens and commentary was relayed over a speaker, while results were marked up on a results board by an ancient chap wearing a peaked cap, long before today's retro Peaky Blinders fashion reached racing. Much more fun than the sparsely populated, technology-led places today.
I have built various systems, but always paper test them before putting any money on, and I would suggest you do that for a minimum of three months (six months is better), as that will save you money in the long term
Some basic betting guidelines
Some of my betting rules are outline below, although you do need to keep evolving to survive, so nothing is ever set in stone.
- Below Class 2 (form is generally more consistent in better races)
- Amateur, claimer, maiden, 2-year-olds until at least September (imagine toddlers trying to run 100m and trying to pick the winner!)
- Small field races can be run at a false pace, so tend to go for races with more than six runners
Studying the form
4. When analysing races, I use an algorithm-based spreadsheet to create unique ratings for each horse and the top three rated have a great record. However, I do not rely on ratings alone and form analysis is the main component of my betting.
- I look for trainers and jockeys in form (+15% strike rate in last two weeks)
- Horses with a recent run less than 28 days on flat and 35 days over jumps (but also look for horses that have proven they can win after a long break)
- Be wary of horses going up in both class and weight as most struggle and conversely look for horses which are dropping in those categories
Betting discipline is crucial
I always set a value price for a horse and stick to it, and I never even look at prices until I have analysed the race.