Goodwood trends best bet: Lattam could leave it late to land Coral Golden Mile
New London ridden by William Buick wins at Goodwood racecourse
Day four at Glorious Goodwood has a plethora of top-class races to savour, and Andrew of Fiosrach has deployed his trends-based analysis to dissect one of the most competitive races on Friday’s card.
The Coral Golden Mile is one of Goodwood's most prestigious renewals that sees 22 runners declared to contest the second biggest purse of the day.
Only three favourites have landed this prize over the last ten years, with last year's winner Orbaan sent off at a tasty 20/1 under Jason Watson.
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Such a big-field handicap is always tough to tackle from a betting perspective, so we're again going to try and reduce the candidates by using historic trends from the last 21 runnings of this ultra-competitive contest.
The trends have eliminated all but four of the twenty runners and one of those is currently a reserve, but I expect Rhoscolyn to drop out having won on Wednesday.
Those four are
Lattam, Eilean Dubh, Darkness and
Dual Identity (reserve).
Suggested bet:
Lattam each-way in the 15:00 at Goodwood
Lattam has won on soft/heavy ground in Ireland, has won four times in seven runs and has the potential to be a good horse.
He has an ideal draw in three and with the stable in good form Lattam should give a good account of himself, especially as he has already won a 27-runner race.
One word of caution, however, is that he is not an easy ride and needs to be produced almost on the line to win - a bit like Harchibald for those of you with long memories.
Eilean Dubh has won on all types of going, so the current conditions should be within his scope, but my main concern is his high draw, which, based on recent years, could be a huge disadvantage.
Eilean Dubh is also exposed with 29 previous starts and is still four pounds above his previous highest-winning official rating.
Darkness was a non-runner from a major handicap here on Wednesday and if the reason was the going, then that must be a concern here also.
I do not understand that rationale, as Darkness won on very soft ground in France, so it will be interesting to see if he runs here.
Darkness is also drawn high which again might limit his chances in this big field, but he has won at Listed level and placed in a Group 3 race, so this should be within his scope.
Dual Identity (Reserve) needs one horse to withdraw from the race to get a run and I expect as mentioned above that he will get at least one non-runner.
Dual Identity is a consistent type but does not win very often, with only three successes from 23 runs and those victories have been on better ground. I think it is a big ask for a horse still high in the handicap and drawn in stall 20.
All things considered,
Lattam is the selection here and due to him being favourite at around 9/2 and shortening as I write, I am going to suggest a win bet.
Suggested bet:
Lattam each-way in the 15:00 at Goodwood
I hope that the big field allows Tom Marquand to tuck him in behind and produce him on the line to win.
