Goodwood trends best bet (1350): Obelix on shortlist to land Kincsem Handicap in day three opener

With 18 runners declared at the 48-hour stage, this is another tough handicap to tackle, with 14 of the contenders having already visited the winner's enclosure this season, six of them last time out.

Sir Michael Stoute's Perfuse looks set to be sent off as the short-priced favourite, but he has a whole host of worthy performers ready to pounce.

I have used the historic trends below to try and narrow down the field in this competitive handicap for three-year-olds:

The application of the trends has left me with a shortlist of three: Killybegs Warrior, Obelix and Coverdale.

Killybegs Warrior won his latest race at Newmarket in a Class 2 handicap, beating Obelix into second by just under two lengths, whilst giving his rival six pounds.

He now must give Obelix eight pounds, which makes this difficult, although Charlie Johnston's stable has a great record in this race with six previous winners.

Obelix, as mentioned above, lost out narrowly to Killybegs Warrior at Newmarket, but now has a weight advantage.

My only concern about him is that he has not won over this distance, but the downhill aspect to Goodwood should help with any questions around stamina, so the focus will be on being in contention coming down the hill.

The Gosden stable also has a good record in this race, and Obelix has more scope for improvement than the other two on the shortlist.

Coverdale comes into this race with four back-to-back wins, which has seen him rise by twenty pounds in the handicap.

His wins have been in a lower class and that means further improvement is needed to win this.so it would be a super training performance if Coverdale can step up again and win this.

Obelix is the trends selection although I must admit I am wary of the Johnston stable that has such a superb record in this race with four wins in the last ten years.

Obelix is suggested as an each way bet, and as usual look around for extra places.