Goodwood each-way tips: Lucky Man and Aleezdancer trending for frame finish in Stewards’ Cup
Goodwood racegoers
Glorious Goodwood draws to a close on Saturday, but not before Andrew of Fiosrach bravely runs his trends analysis over the most competitive big-field handicap of the five-day festival.
After two of our selections ended up being withdrawn earlier in the week, we're hoping that won't be the case on the final day, and I have picked the easy(!) task of selecting the winner from 28 runners in the Coral Stewards' Cup.
While not exactly a graveyard for favourites (three wins in the last eight years, and six this century), outsiders often have a good day, with nine of the last 15 winners landing at double-digit prices.
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One of those was last year's winner, Commanche Falls, who had been a winning 10/1 shot in 2021, and successfully defended his crown by a short head from Tabdeed at even tastier odds of 25/1.
Having used the trends above, I must point out that I have ignored the horses drawn high, as they have a terrible record in a big field at Goodwood when the going is soft or worse.
I have ended up with a shortlist of five horses: Lucky Man,Tanmawwy, Orazio, Aphelios and Aleezdancer.
Suggested bet (1):
Lucky Man each-way in the 15:35 at Goodwood
Lucky Man has won four races from 23 runs, with three of the four being on all-weather surfaces and three being ridden by today's jockey Hayley Turner.
He likes to lead, which is a massive plus on this going, and the main question is will Lucky Man handle the going?
Tanmawwy is high in the weights with a six-pound penalty, but that is almost nullified by his able claimer taking off five pounds.
Tanmawwy is usually ridden prominently and that is a plus with the going conditions, and his draw in stall eight is another positive.
He also holds a Group entry later in the month, which would suggest he is held in high regard by his trainer, who has a good record in this race.
Orazio is also from the Charlie Hills' stable and has only had six starts due to a setback last season. He has won three of those races and ran well to finish 6th in the Wokingham at Royal Ascot, beaten only two and a half lengths.
Orazio has an entry in the Group 2 sprint at York at the Ebor meeting, which again suggests he is a potentially top-class sprinter. My only concern is he tends to be held up or runs in mid-division, which is a negative on this ground.
Aphelios has had his best performances on quicker ground and there is nothing to suggest he will handle this going. He is also well held by Orazio on good-to-soft going, so is unlikely to reverse that form.
Aleezdancer meets many of the trends but tends to be held up, although he has also won when ridden prominently on soft ground in a big-field handicap at Doncaster, (with the same jockey Neil Callan on board).
If you could be sure that he would be ridden the same again he would be in with a shout, and his trainer confirms that he loves this ground.
I think with the size of the field it is best to go with two selections rather than one. If going for one I would have gone for Orazio, which is probably a Group performer in the making, but his odds of about 5/1 is far too skinny.
I have therefore decided to have each-way bets on
Lucky Man and
Aleezdancer and at the time of writing they are listed at 40/1 and 20/1 respectively.
Suggested bet (2):
Aleezdancer each-way in the 15:35 at Goodwood
