Friday Kempton top racing tip: Ferrobin down in class but up in value

With that in mind, the extremely well-handicapped Ferrobin, who was racing in Class 2 off 125 just over a year ago, looks a very good-value bet down in a moderate Class 4 off just 109.

Significantly, his last win came just prior to that Class 2 run, and came in a notably stronger 0-121 handicap in which all but one of the eight-runner field were rated higher than any of the opposition here.

Off a mark of 116 (seven pounds higher than today) and over similar conditions to those expected at Kempton, Ferrobin was able to win by almost four lengths, only having to be pushed out to score in convincing fashion.

The well-beaten runner-up went on to win a Class 4 handicap a couple of runs later and the third-placed finisher won next time out, and both of those placed horses are still rated higher than today's opposition.

The front trio pulled a long way clear of the fourth, who was most recently seen winning a Class 5 over this trip (on good) by over three lengths.

That win came only six hurdling runs ago, and the only time since then that Ferrobin has had a similar set of conditions was just before Christmas, when he was back over that same course and distance at Ludlow.

Despite not having raced for 129 days and despite the ground being a bit softer than when he won, Ferrobin finished a creditable fourth of 14 in a 0-122 contest (again much stronger than today's), missing the places by under two lengths when racing off 114 (five pounds higher than today).

Given that his only subsequent run over hurdles came in a Class 3 over the minimum two miles of unsuitably soft ground, he has to be of strong interest now he is back over 21 furlongs of better ground, with four of his five career wins coming under similar conditions.

Of the others, the better bet of the two in-form younger hurdlers appears to be Sami Bear, who was unlucky to unseat his rider approaching the final hurdle at Wincanton last time, when still ahead of his 16 rivals.

The conditions of that big-field handicap were very similar to today's and although it was a Class 5, it was a 0-107 contest that wasn't too far behind today's 0-111 standard.

With previous figures of 31332 from his five other handicaps over the last twelve months, Sami Bear is extremely consistent with sharp tracks and decent ground serving him well, and he could go well again under his regular rider.

Next best bet: Sami Bear