Up near the head of the early market is Ustath, who is on a hat-trick following two wins at Southwell, but they were in very weak classified stakes.
The seven-year-old is vulnerable back in handicap company off a higher mark then for his last handicap appearance, when he was unplaced among 0-57 rivals.
His last six all-weather wins were at Southwell, and he hasn't won anywhere else on synthetics since 2019, but he remains a key player from a pace angle because he is a confirmed front-runner and the likeliest source of the early speed from stall 3.
From that point of view, Giselles Izzy looks an attractive proposition from her adjacent stall 4, from where she should get an ideal tow through the race.
19:45 (Newcastle) Giselles Izzy
This drop back from a flat seven furlongs to an uphill six looks a good move because she won over a flat six furlongs just before Christmas, but she needed every yard of it at a strong pace, hence the reason that she was upped to seven for her last two runs.
Her six-furlong win came in a better (0-60) race than this and, having been held off a fast pace, Giselles Izzy came through very strongly in the closing stages to eventually get comfortably on top of what had been a protracted three-way battle throughout the closing stages.
The second, third and fourth-placed finishers all had good previous form over this trip, but most significant of all, in the context of today's contest, was the runner back in fifth place that day, who was none other than Ustath, setting his usual brisk pace which suited Giselles Izzy perfectly.
That's why Giselles Izzy looks a good bet again today, because not only does she have the same front-runner in the field once again, but she is drawn right next door to him.
Even with a strong pace like the one Ustath set at Southwell, Giselles Izzy only eventually got well on top in the closing stages, so she looks likely to be even better suited by the same scenario but on today's uphill track.
She is only three pounds above her winning mark and Poppy Wilson (whose only ride over the last two weeks produced a sprint handicap win at this track on a runner trained by Iain Jardine) claims seven pounds, so the filly is effectively four pounds better off.
- Tip advised at 13/2 by Steve Jones who provides racing tips as CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr
Of the others, Zegos Surprise might out-run her double-figure early price on her first outing for Jardine, who is effective with this type of older, lower-grade handicapper.
Prior to her one run for previous connections, this mare was a lot better than today's grade, winning a 0-75 (off 52) and running well in several 0-70s (off marks up to 62).
- Next best bet: Zegos Surprise
She wouldn't need to rediscover anywhere near all of that ability to be competitive in this 0-57 off 46, with Clifford Lee an intriguing booking because he has ridden two winners and a second from only four all-weather bookings for Jardine over the last five seasons.