Cheltenham Supreme Hurdle tip analysis: Trends point to Tahmuras for each-way value
Cheltenham
Having used trends analysis to pick out Imperial Cup winner Iceo, racing analyst Andrew of Fiosrach now examines the winning trends ahead of the opening race of the Cheltenham Festival on Tuesday.
Iceo was sent off at 5/1 at Sandown on Saturday, but was available at 9/1 the night before the race, all reinforcing the notion that studying recent winning patterns can help narrow down the field to reveal the best value bet.
Today I am looking at the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, which is the Cheltenham Festival's curtain raiser and is usually met with one of the biggest roars of the week as the twenty runners start the meeting.
The two-mile race involves the best novice hurdlers and is usually run at a frenetic pace. The favourite for the Champion Hurdle, Constitution Hill, won this renewal by a record 22-length margin last season, leaving the highly-rated Jonbon in his wake.
This narrowed the field down to Il Etait Temps, Facile Vega, Tahmuras, Marine Nationale and Inthepocket.
I was able to eliminate three more for the following reasons:
I was reasonably keen on the chances of Il Etait Temps after he won the Grade 1 Tattersalls Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown, but he has a massive negative trend to overcome.
This five-year-old wears a hood when racing and runners in this contest wearing any type of headgear are 0-38, so I ruled him out.
This left the Paul Nicholls-trained Tahmuras who does need to improve from his Grade 1 win in the Tolworth Novices Hurdle, but will relish the ground and will be staying on past flagging runners here.
This leads me to recommend an each-way bet on Tahmuras with a bookmaker offering four places.
