Stayers' Hurdle ante-post tip preview: Trends analysis narrows competitive Cheltenham field

Personally I have backed Teahupoo ante-post at 14/1, but that price has long gone, and anyway I think the ground is likely to come up too quick for him, so I might lay off part of that bet. 

Stayers' Hurdle trends

• Age 

10 of the last 12 winners were aged between six and eight

• Price

Four of the last 12 winners were favourites, 6/12 winners were in the top three in the betting

• Last Run 

Seven of the last 12 winners won on their last run before the Stayers Hurdle, 10/12 winners had their last run within 80 days

• Cleeve hurdle

Five out of 12 winners ran in the Cleeve at Cheltenham on their last run, three of the five won, with one placed

• Previous Course Form

11/12 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, 7/12 winners had at least one previous win at Cheltenham

• Previous Distance Form

Nine of the last 12 winners had at least three runs over 23-25 furlongs, 8/12 winners had at least two wins over 23-25 furlongs

• Previous Hurdle Form

11/12 winners had at least eight previous runs over hurdles, 10/12 winners had at least four previous wins over hurdles

• Rating

Nine of the last 12 winners were rated 156 or higher

• Grade One and Grade Two Wins 

Nine of the last 12 winners had at least one previous Grade One win, and the same figure applies to Grade Two wins

• Season Form 

11/12 winners had at least two runs that season, while nine of 12 winners had at least one win that season

If Flooring Porter arrives in shape for the race (recent reports from his trainer suggest that he is over his fitness setbacks), then I think there must be a chance of him getting his hat-trick of wins. Having said that, I believe it is always difficult to win at Cheltenham with fitness issues in the same season.

Teahupoo has won an impressive eight from 11 hurdle races, but the wins have come on ground softer than good and he is unlikely to get his going if current weather forecasts are accurate.

Home By The Lee won well at Leopardstown in the Christmas Hurdle beating several of the runners entered here. He was beaten by Flooring Porter in this race last year, but his trainer believes he has improved since then.

Gold Tweet won the Cleeve Hurdle in January and won impressively, but does need to be supplemented by his owners. Like most overseas runners he is likely to be a longer price than he should be, so should merit an each way play.

Looking at the likely going of the three horses identified by the trends I think Home By The Lee gives an each-way opportunity, but if the French horse Gold Tweet runs and is a bigger price I am likely to back him on the day.

• Andrew provides horse racing analysis as Fiosrach on the Tipstrr platform