Cheltenham Ballymore Hurdle tip analysis: Trends suggest Impaire Et Passe is justifiable favourite
Ryanair Mares Novice Hurdle
Having employed trends analysis as a successful tool in the past, racing expert Andrew of Fiosrach now examines the winning patterns ahead of the the first race on day two of the Cheltenham Festival.
The Ballymore Novices' Hurdle is a tough test for novices and can prove to be a stepping stone for future top hurdlers and chasers.
Being a Grade 1 race, it takes a top-class animal to win it and previous winners include Sir Gerhard, Bob Ollinger, The New One, Faugheen and Monsignor
I have used the trends below to narrow the field and provide a selection for the first race on Wednesday.
The trends above left me with a shortlist of three horses - Gaelic Warrior, Hermes Allen and Impaire Et Passe, each of which have the talent to win this race.
Two of those are from the Willie Mullins stable, which has won five of the last fifteen renewals of this race, and has four of this year's entrants, illustrating the strength and depth of the Mullins stable.
The odd one out of the three is the Paul Nicholls-trained Hermes Allen, who meets more of the trends than the other contenders, but has a massive negative trend to overcome.
Hermes Allen won the Challow Hurdle at Newbury on his last start, and the last nineteen winners of that race have been beaten in the Ballymore and that puts me off his chances here.
Gaelic Warrior has an even bigger negative statistic to overcome, with horses that ran in a handicap last time out having an appalling record when running in a Graded contest at the Festival. He is also more exposed as a hurdler than most previous winners.
That leaves Impaire Et Passe as the selection on trends and he has been very impressive in his three starts, including winning a Grade 2 contest over a shorter trip last time.
Impaire Et Passe has won over two miles and three furlongs and will cope with soft or even heavy going.
