Ascot Victoria Cup betting tips: Trends analysis pinpoints a couple of each-way prospects
Manaccan ridden by jockey Stevie Donohoe wins the Rous Stakes at Ascot
Horse racing analyst Andrew of Fiosrach has been running his statistical trends analysis for us, and has narrowed the field down to a couple of each-way prospects in Saturday’s big race at Ascot.
Our two trends' runners this week at Chester finished third, which was enough to earn Call My Bluff some each-way monies after finishing third in the Chester Cup.
He was backed into a very short-priced favourite from double-figure odds when the article was published, so I hope you got the bigger prices!
The big handicap of the day at Ascot is probably not the easiest race from which to identify the winner, especially with 23 runners lining up.
Using trends is always a useful exercise to help reduce the field to a more manageable number of horses to analyse further, as you can see below:
After applying the trends above a much more malleable list of four horses remained: Tylos, Baradar, Rainbow Fire and Darkness.
Suggested each-way bet (1): Tylos in the 14:40 at Ascot
Tylos has a nine-pound rise in the official ratings to cope with after winning his last race unchallenged by eleven lengths.
That race was on heavy ground, so soft should not be an issue and his claimer takes off five pounds, which reduces the rise to only four pounds.
If he can cope with the rise in class, he could run into a place at a big price.
Baradar ticks most of the trends' boxes and his trainer George Boughey has proven himself adept at placing his horses to win decent races.
His seasonal debut was over a mile, which his trainer felt was just too far and the return to seven furlongs should suit, although I am concerned to see a tongue tie applied for the first time.
His price looks skinny in such a big field, and although he is the most likely winner, he is not for me at such a price.
Rainbow Fire has an excellent record on turf having won three from four runs, plus he stays further than seven furlongs, which I think is necessary at Ascot with the rising ground at the finish.
He probably needs the ground to dry out a bit and the forecast for Saturday is for sunshine, so he should be ok.
Suggested each-way bet (2):
Rainbow Fire in the 14:40 at Ascot
Darkness has a low draw here and that is not ideal, and he has not won since switching from France to the UK in 2020. That losing run does not fill me with confidence, but the booking of Andrea Atzeni is a positive.
The four horses above should all give a decent account of themselves, but for betting purposes I think Rainbow Fire and Tylos are worth backing each way at current prices - and as usual, look for additional places.
Suggested each-way bets:
Rainbow Fire and Tylos in the 14:40 at Ascot
