Ascot free racing tips: Favourite looks vulnerable in competitive Collier Handicap

14:47 Ascot: Colliers Handicap (2 miles)

The short-priced early favourite, Hutchence, has only ever won on good-to-firm, has never raced further than 14 furlongs, and runs off 7lbs higher than his top winning mark, so a much better-value bet at the prices is Wind Your Neck In, who will relish this surface and who looks poised to strike in the closing weeks of the season, just as he did last year.

At the end of last season, he won an 11-runner handicap on heavy ground at Newmarket, out-staying Mr Alan with the front pair pulling more than two lengths clear of the others.

He has had cut in the ground only once since then, and that was at Chester in June, when he appreciated the step up to two miles for the first time, finishing a close second of 10 (beaten a neck).

Best Bet: Wind Your Neck In in the 14:47 at Ascot

The front pair in that event pulled fully 6½ lengths clear of the others and the narrow winner, Rich Belief, was an Irish raider whose previous run on that type of surface saw him beat 18 rivals to win a staying handicap on heavy ground at Navan.

Wind Your Neck In was unfortunate to bump into that rival, but for whom he would have won by a wide margin, this is the first time he has enjoyed a testing surface since, and he is only a pound higher.

He is still unexposed as a staying handicapper and his three wins have all come on soft or heavy ground and he has the notable presence of Richard Kingscote, who won on him at Newmarket and the partnership has a good chance of scoring again here.

Of the others, Maxident should go well on the back of his runner-up spot in a soft-ground two-mile handicap at Ripon last Saturday, when he got involved in a battle for the lead, so he did well to keep going like he did.

His sole win to date came on the testing-right-handed track at Leicester, where he landed a novices’ event over 12f on heavy ground last season.

However, he bettered that performance at Goodwood earlier this season, running within half a length of winning a two-mile soft-ground handicap in which he attempted to make every yard.

Oisin Murphy takes over from the claiming rider who partnered the four-year-old at Ripon last time and a big run looks likely off an unchanged mark.

Next Best Bet: Maxident In in the 14:47 at Ascot

• Preview and tips provided Steve Jones, who runs CD Systems Daily Bargain on Tipstrr