Friday free racing tip: Outsider can defy odds in wide-open Ascot handicap

16:30 Ascot: Bet MGM Handicap (6 furlongs)

Heading the market, five-time course-and-distance winner Rohaan could prove a handful on his favourite track from his low draw, while Never So Brave must also merit serious consideration in the hands of Ryan Moore.

However, we’re looking deeper in the betting towards the oldest horse in the field, Commanche Falls, who has yet to visit a winner’s enclosure so far this term, but could well buck that trend in a race that looks tailor-made for his style and ability.

This Michael Dods-trained seven-year-old comes here after a decent run last time out in the Ayr Gold Cup, in which he finished at the front of his group, but had to settle for sixth spot, four lengths behind victorious Lethal Levi.

Nevertheless, he posted excellent speed figures in a very good performance under top weight, which he is lumbered with again here, while last time’s blinkers are now replaced with less restrictive cheekpieces.

Suggested Bet: Comanche Falls in the 16:30 at Ascot

Three weeks earlier, Commanche Falls had been pitched into a five-furlong sprint at Beverley, a strange move from his connections considering he has never won over the minimum trip.

His form is probably better judged from the run before that when he finished a very creditable third of 19 over his preferred six furlongs in the Constantine Handicap at York, again under top weight and again putting in a great performance under regular jockey Connor Beasley.

This race represents a drop in class from his last three outings, and although carrying one pound more than in the Ayr Gold Cup, if he can replicate anything close to his last two six-furlong runs, then he should be right in the mix, especially if he gets a decent tow from likely pacesetter, Never So Brave, who is drawn in the next stall. 

• Tip and preview provided by TommyTheTipper on Tipstrr