A new favourite for the Arkle Trophy? - Andy Gibson reflects
Jonbon ridden by jockey Aidan Coleman
The landscape of the Cheltenham betting market is changing constantly, leading horse racing analyst Andy Gibson to weigh up the recent performance and prospects of Arkle Trophy market leader, Jonbon.
Jonbon's relatively hard-fought success in the Grade Two Kingmaker Novices' Chase at Warwick has resulted in El Fabiolo taking over from him at the top of the Arkle Chase betting.
Jonbon's performance at Warwick reminded me a little of his workmanlike victory at Haydock in late January 2022.
The sharp Haydock track was offered as a part excuse on that occasion, and I would suggest that the relatively speedy nature of the Warwick course is likely to be offered up as a part excuse for this unconvincing display.
I would prefer to remain open minded on this score as Jonbon is not short of speed given the way he was able to stick close to Dysart Dynamo in the 2022 Supreme Hurdle.
The early pace he displayed in March 2022 is a big plus for his claims to do likewise against the same pace setter in the 2023 Arkle.
That said, this comparison is a little blurred as I doubt the Willie Mullins horse was at his best in March 2022.
Sooner or later?
In the Kingmaker Novices' Chase, Jonbon was jogging round in his own time when Harry Skelton sent Calico to the front at the first fence down the far side, which was the seventh from home.
Maybe, on reflection, the outsider of two would have been better off again if his sharp move had been delayed until the fourth or fifth last fence.
I am not sure on that point, but a later manoeuvre would certainly have given the favourite less time to respond and Jonbon certainly took a while to gather himself before he appeared able to renew his challenge.
The counter argument to that alternative strategy is that Jonbon might have been long gone if Harry Skelton had waited until five out before quickening up the pace.
Sitting off a faster pace should make life easier
Whatever the rights and wrongs, Jonbon will face a very different challenge in the Arkle next month.
Dysart Dynamo seems likely to set a very strong pace which should suit Jonbon better than having to make his own running round a sharp track like Warwick.
An important discussion point about the 2023 Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase is whether we believe Dysart Dynamo was at his best last March, and if not, how likely he is to show improved form this year?
Of course, we can discuss these variables all we like and still will not know the answer until the afternoon of 14th March. The dilemma then becomes price related; that is, do we want to take a chance on Dysart Dynamo at 7/1 or do we prefer to risk a wager on Jonbon at 2/1.
There is no right answer - it is a question of preference and interpretation of value.
