Andy Gibson Sandown racing review: Scilly Isles Novices' Chase offers useful pointers
Gerri Colombe ridden by Jordan Gainford
Last weekend's Sandown meeting has led horse racing analyst Andy Gibson to look more closely at what the outcome of the Scilly Isles Novices' Chase might tell us about the runners' future prospects.
Brown Advisory next for the winner
Gerri Colombe jumped and travelled well and appears to be a very safe proposition over fences.
Prior to this race, his trainer had earmarked the National Hunt Chase for him, providing the ground was soft, and consequently, I doubt he could have many concerns about his ability to stay the trip in the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase on day two of the Festival.
Moreover, one would expect him to improve for the extra half-a-mile, albeit on very limited evidence.
It would be very easy to make a few comparisons between Gerri Colombe and The Real Whacker after this success, and also very easy to be wide of the mark in our assumptions.
If the third horse here ran to the same level on both occasions, then the Cheltenham winner might be thought of as being a little ahead of the Scilly Isles winner.
We might come to a very different conclusion if using Monmiral as our guide. For what it is worth, I think the percentage call is for Thunder Rock to have performed better at Sandown than Cheltenham, and thus improved beyond Monmiral. Certainly his jumping was much better here than on that last day.
The fallout from this result sees the winner as the 3/1 favourite for the Brown Advisory with The Real Whacker at around 5/1. At this point in time, most of the top ten in the betting appear very likely to go elsewhere or not make the festival at all, which could result in the front two in the betting trading a lot shorter closer to the day.
A decent surface may be needed to take on the winner again
I thought Balco Coastal jumped well again here and given his tendency to edge left at a few of his fences, he might be better going the other way round, which would do him no harm in March.
That said, I would tend away from him if stepping up in trip for the Brown Advisory, should plenty of rain fall before the second day of the Festival.
Despite going down relatively narrowly to the current Brown Advisory favourite, this Nicky Henderson horse is available for that contest at a double-figure price that was even bigger immediately after this race.
The winner looks very likely to be suited to a longer trip, whereas I would prefer to remain open minded with this chaser.
When he was beaten at Cheltenham as a novice hurdler, his trainer concluded that he must be a two-mile horse, and while I would not wish to 'hang my hat' on that quote, at the same time, it is an interesting comment and in sharp contrast to the words of Gordon Elliott, who regards Gerri Colombe as a real stayer.
Soft ground no problem for the Olly Murphy horse
In contrast to the runner up, I would suggest Thunder Rock's Brown Advisory claims would increase in the event of plenty of rain arriving in time.
This was a much-improved jumping display and if one used Monmiral as a reliable guide (risky), then Thunder Rock could arguably be up there with The Real Whacker on a good jumping day.
Where next for the Ditcheat horse?
Harry Cobden was already niggling at Monmiral before the final run at the Railway Fences, and he had not jumped as well as the two leaders over the first few fences prior to the railway trio.
One could easily suggest that this performance does nothing for the form of The Real Whacker, or indeed Jonbon, and whatever the reasons for this disappointing effort it is difficult to think where Paul Nicholls might choose to go with Monmiral next.
He appeared to be a potential superstar in April 2021, but has looked nothing of the sort in all six races since, and is one to steer away from until he shows something to the contrary - not least because he is likely to continue to attract more market support than his profile merits.
