Andy Gibson's big race review: Fallout from the Denman Chase at Newbury
Zanza ridden by Tom O'Brien
Expert horse racing analyst takes a retrospective look at last weekend's Denman Chase, which appears to have provided as many questions as answers about form and prospects of the runners involved.
Zanza -course form the key
Zanza has been raised to a mark of 158 after this wide margin success which is a mark that should seriously overestimate him on the balance of his profile.
If the handicapper had taken his winning margin literally over the 160-rated runner-up then it could have been worse still.
The way to look at Zanza, in my opinion, is to see him as a 150+ chaser when he is competing round Newbury and more like a 140 chaser when he is competing elsewhere.
This was not the strongest of renewals and all seven horses had something to prove to be successful, an on the very limited evidence of comparing this race with the opening contest, the Denman Chase was run at a sustained gallop throughout.
Zanza will be of most interest should he compete in a race where his 158 mark results in him trading quite short.
If that race is away from Newbury, I would see him as more of a 140 horse and so I do hope to see the market respond as if he is capable of competing to that more elevated mark away from the Berkshire track.
His form figures when competing at Newbury now read: 1 1 6 1 1 1 - and his only defeat in this sequence came when he finished a close sixth in the 2020 Betfair Hurdle beaten two lengths.
Conversely, he is now on a losing run of 20 races when competing away from his favourite course.
Hitman - soft finisher or non-stayer?
After travelling strongly towards the fore, Hitman did his usual and found less than appeared likely when asked for more.
He did appear to run on again from the last to the line once he had the comfort of the winning horse seven lengths clear of him.
I have long since suspected that he is soft in the finish, but this tame effort from three out to the line may have had as much to do with him not quite seeing out the trip after doing plenty in front.
I understand he was found to have bled post-race, which is a development worth noting.
Does He Know - a positive step forward for the Kim Bailey yard
We have witnessed two or three signs in recent days that the Kim Bailey yard may be on the way back.
The performance of Does He Know in the Denman Chase was another piece of evidence to add to the equation as he drew well clear of the fourth horse home after travelling well into the home straight.
Whether he will do better again when the stable gets into top gear I am not sure as I would suggest that his current 157 rating overestimates his ability level.
Fanion D'Estruval - one win in fourteen starts tells a story
Once again Fanion D'Estruval struggled to stay with the pace due to his tendency to brush through too many of the fences and lose momentum and ground.
The first-time cheek pieces made little to no difference and he remains a horse with a poor win to run ratio and also a horse without a trip.
This defeat stretches his losing sequence to six races, and he has only won once in his latest 14 chases, which is an extremely poor win to run ratio for such a talented horse.
Aside from jumping low at too many of his fences round Grade One tracks, the other issue with Fanion D'Estruval is that he keeps on staying on when the race is over to finish closer to the winner than he deserves.
This trait has resulted in the handicapper only dropping him from 159 to 155 despite him failing to win any of his latest six races.
Eldorado Allen - -a tougher trip than last season?
After racing up with the pace in the Denman Chase, Eldorado Allen's race was run by the third last fence.
I doubt we can blame a tough early part of the season for this poor finishing effort as he experienced something similar before winning the 2022 renewal of this grade two chase.
Due to the presence of the keen-going Hitman, maybe he endured a tougher lead this time around which resulted in him not quite seeing out the trip.
Kalashnikov and Sam Brown -one to forget and one to forgive
Kalashnikov remains a horse to avoid after another average effort that takes his losing run to ten races stretching over a period of nearly four years.
Conversely, although Sam Brown was beaten with a circuit to go and was pulled up before the tenth fence, I would be much happier giving him another chance on another day.
I am sure the Newbury ground would have been much faster than ideal and I would prefer to keep a quiet eye on him the next time he competes in a similar level on softer going.
