Best strategies for successful horse racing betting

Betting on horse racing is a big tricky puzzle you need to solve. There are so many different factors that need to fit just right for you to be a big winner.

Once in a while sticking a pin in a list of names can do the trick, but this is not a long-term sustainable strategic solution.

Here we take a look at some of the key strategies that you need to consider to give you a leg up when it comes to making winning horse racing selections.

 

Research the horse

This is your obvious starting point, and not just because you like the name or the silks. Although you will find people who swear by that loose metric, it's no guarantee of success.

 

Form

Recent races: Check the horse's last few races (usually 3 - 5) to evaluate their current form. Pay attention to the position they finished in, were they consistently finishing in the top 3? A horse that has recently placed well is in better form.

Race conditions: Was the race on turf or all-weather? Was the distance short or long? A horse that performs well in specific conditions (e.g: turf sprints) is more likely to repeat success.

Beating competition: Who did the horse race against? Beating weaker competition may not indicate superior form, so look at the caliber of competitors.

Winning margins: Consider how the horse won or lost races. Horses that win by a large margin may be in outstanding form, while narrow wins or losses could indicate a struggle or inconsistency.

Race time: Compare the times of previous races. Some horses perform well, but their race times may not be competitive against higher-level races.

Franking the form: If a horse has run well in a race, and one or more of its competitors from that race subsequently perform well in their next race, it “franks” the form of the original horse, meaning that the performance in that race is seen as a strong indicator of future success.

Preferred venue: Some horses tend to enjoy some racecourses more than others. Check to see which courses they perform best at and you might spot a pattern. Trainers might also lean to taking the horse to the specific track on a regular basis.

Injury history: Research whether the horse has had any major injuries that could affect its performance. Horses with recurring injuries might struggle to maintain form.

 

Class and race level

Class of competition: Races are divided into different classes such as group/grade, listed, handicap, claimers, novice, maidens, bumper, condition and selling

Horses in elite races are generally at the highest level, while claimers, horses that can be bought or sold during the race, are lower-level horses used in mixed abilities races. 

A horse that has done well in higher-class races (grade/group or listed) but is now racing in a lower-class race may have a competitive advantage.

Class Drop: Be aware of horses that are "dropping in class" as they may perform better due to less competition.

 

Ratings

Ratings are a measure of the ability of horses based on their past performances. These ratings are crucial for ensuring that horses of similar abilities compete against each other in races, making the competition fairer.

For example handicappers will determine a horse's carrying weight in a handicap race. A higher-rated horse carries more weight, which helps level the chances of all horses in the race.

Official Ratings (OR) are assigned by the governing racing bodies like the BHA, and these ratings determine a horse's weight in handicaps and give an official measure of a horse's ability.

A horse's OR is generally a reflection of the quality of their recent form, such as race position, the time they finished, the competition they faced and the level of the race.

Horses rated 90-100 might be considered mid-level performers, while horses above 120 are usually top-class.

RP Ratings (Racing Post Ratings) are more analytical and are typically used for a broader understanding of a horse’s performance, including its strengths and weaknesses, in relation to the overall field.

 

RP Ratings Scale:

130+: Elite, top-class horses (Group or Grade 1 level).

120-130: Very good, Group-level horses.

100-119: Good to average, often competitive in handicaps.

80-99: Average, might compete in lower-grade races.

Below 80: Below average or struggling horses, often in lower-level races.

Both systems are used by bettors, trainers and owners to gauge a horse’s potential, but RP Ratings provide an additional layer of depth with a more performance-focused approach.

 

How Racing Ratings are Assigned:

Recent performance: A horse’s performance in its most recent races is heavily considered. If it performs well, its rating will increase. If it underperforms, its rating will drop.

Class of race: Horses that perform in higher-class races will typically get higher ratings.

Race timing and conditions: The times in which horses finish in relation to the pace of the race, as well as the conditions are factored into the rating.

 

Pedigree and bloodlines

Breeding: A horse’s family history can tell you a lot about its potential. Thoroughbreds with strong bloodlines and successful parents (especially sires and dams) are often better suited for racing. Horses with proven bloodlines in specific conditions (like sprinting or stamina) are more likely to excel.

Sire influence: Look up the sire’s (father) track record and what kind of races his offspring tend to perform well in.

Dam Influence: Pay attention to the dam’s (mother) past performance and if she has produced successful offspring.

 

Horse’s speed figures

Speed ratings: These numbers are calculated based on a horse’s performance in a race, accounting for track conditions, pace, and competition. Higher speed figures generally correlate to better performance.

Consistency: Look for horses that consistently hit high-speed figures. This indicates that the horse can run fast and maintain form across races.

 

Research the trainer

Trainer’s reputation: The trainer’s success at specific tracks, in certain race types, and with different types of horses can greatly affect a horse's performance.

Look for trainers with a solid track record, especially in specific race conditions (weather, track type etc.)

Yard in form: Keep an eye on how the other horses in the trainer’s yard are performing, if they are having success then the trainer and his team are doing something right.

Horse movements: A horse that has switched trainers recently may experience a change in its performance. New trainers can sometimes bring out the best in a horse, but it’s also possible for the horse to struggle under a new regime.

Jockey/Trainer Combination: The partnership between the trainer and jockey can be key to a horse’s success. A successful combination often leads to more wins.

Trainer's travel arrangements: Ask yourself a question, why has a trainer based mainly in the south west, dragged a horse all the way up to Newcastle for a Tuesday evening meeting? They are not making the trip because they like the motorway service stations are they, something is going on. The clues are there.

 

Research the jockey

Jockey experience: The skill and experience of the jockey can significantly influence a horse's performance. A jockey with a good course record or familiarity with the race can be an advantage.

Jockey’s skills: Track the jockey’s performance in similar races, and note if they have a strong history with the horse or a solid record at the track.

Jockey/Trainer Combination: The partnership between the trainer and jockey can be key to a horse’s success. A successful combination often leads to more wins.

Jockey's choice: Bigger name jockeys and stable jockeys, will usually get their pick of the top horses in the yard. Also keep an eye out for jockeys changing mounts or bigger-name jockeys bumping others off rides if they become available late in the day.

 

Understand race conditions

 

Race type:

Race distance: This distance of a race may favour certain types of horses. Some may be ‘stepping up in trip’ which is a longer distance than they run before, or vice versa. Trainers will try their horses in different length races looking to find the distance that suits them the best.

Pace of the race: Some horses perform better when the race pace is fast, while others prefer slower paces. Look at how the race is likely to unfold and bet accordingly.

 

Track and weather conditions

Track type: Some horses perform better on certain types of racecourses, whether they are turf, dirt or synthetic (all-weather).

Track bias: Each racecourse can have specific bias or quirk, so make sure you familiarise yourself with these before betting. For example, Epsom is famous for its pronounced camber which can make the track feel like a rollercoaster and some horses can struggle to perform.

Weather impact: Some horses perform better in certain weather conditions, particularly on wet or faster drier racecourses. If a race is held on a heavy or firm track, the two ends of the going scale, check the horse’s previous performance on similar surfaces.

 

Draw bias

Starting position: The stall in which a horse is drawn is often overlooked, but on some racecourses it can be crucial in determining the outcome of the race. For example at Chester the draw bias is so well known that horses in lower stalls are usually overbet.

Track Layout: Some racecourses are notorious for favouring outside positions, while others may be biased toward the inside. Understanding racecourse layout can help you assess post position effects.

 

Behavioural signs

Paddock behaviour: The racecourse parade ring is there for a reason, and it’s not just for awarding the best turned out. Watch the horse in the paddock before the race. Are they calm, focused and relaxed? They might be better prepared to run, while nervous or agitated horses may perform poorly.

Pre-race: Horses who appear skittish or struggle going into stalls could be an issue, in national hunt meetings, those failing to line up or hanging back might also be problematic.

 

Betting trends

Tipster analysis: Many pundits and tipsters provide analysis, betting trends and insights on each race. They can add valuable perspectives but it’s important you use your own reasoning rather than solely rely on the opinion of others.

Betting trends: Watch how the odds are moving. If large chunks of cash are being placed on a horse, it’s highly likely that the odds will shorten. But the question you should always ask yourself is 'why’ large chunks are being placed? Crucially it’s important not to blindly follow the crowd, maybe this is a good opportunity to look for "value" bets on horses that others might overlook.

Public sentiment: Horses can be overhyped by the media or bettors. Be cautious of horses with inflated odds based purely on popularity rather than form

 

Video analysis

Race replays: Watch replays of the horse's previous races to see how they handled different situations (trouble in the race, strong finishes, bad starts etc.).

Tactics and style: Pay attention to how the horse races. For example does it have a strong finish kick, does it prefer to lead from the front or does it have a quirky jumping style? Knowing this helps you predict how it will handle race dynamics.

 

Consider the odds

Value betting: Look for horses that are undervalued by the odds but have a legitimate chance to win. This can often result in better long-term profitability.

Favourites: While favourites win a significant percentage of races, their odds may not provide the best return. Sometimes betting on the second or third favorite can give better value.

Outsiders: Horses with big odds can provide surprise results, especially in races with larger fields. As with every sport, surprise results are not uncommon, but there might be plenty of clues leading up to the race that in hindsight make the result less of a surprise.

 

Betting with bankroll management

Set a budget: Decide how much you’re willing to lose and stick to it. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

Avoid chasing losses: If you're losing, don't increase your bets in an attempt to recover. Stay disciplined and bet within your means.

 

Track your results

Keep records: Track your bets and review what works and what doesn’t. Over time, you may notice patterns and improve your strategy.

Learn from mistakes: Understand why a bet didn't go as planned and adjust your future strategies based on what you learn.

 

Gamble responsibly

- Only bet what you can afford and know when to stop

- Use the bookmakers responsible gambling tools to set limits

- Speak to people if you feel like your gambling might be getting out of control

 

Find a nice big slab of luck

At the end of the day, it certainly helps if Lady Luck is smiling on you and your chosen horse that day.

You might have all the right puzzle pieces in all the right places, only for a loose horse to jump right across your selection and unseat the jockey at the final hurdle.

That’s the beauty of sport, you never truly know what is going to happen and there’s no such thing as a surefire guarantee.