NBA playoff preview and tips: Boston Celtics at Miami Heat - Game Four
- George Dempsey
- 22 May 2023
Miami Heat have stunned the Boston Celtics and hold a 3-0 series lead in their Eastern Conference Finals.
Neither of these series felt like they'd finish and you would have got extremely long odds on Miami winning in four games. They were around 40/1 to do so before the series.
Standout Trends
Over is 25-10 in Miami's last 35 Conference Finals games.
Over is 22-7 in Miami's last 29 games.
Over is 11-3 in Boston's last 14 games.
Over is 8-3 in Boston's last 11 games after an ATS loss.
Suggested Bets
Over 215 points
Celtics @ Heat - Game Four verdict
Miami took a commanding 3-0 series lead with a dominant 128-102 blowout win over Boston Celtics on Sunday night. Game four takes place in Miami and it would no longer be a surprise if they wrap things up 4-0.
Miami were a big price just to win the series before game one, but they've been good value for their lead. They didn't just beat the Celtics on Sunday, they dominated them in every way possible. Jimmy Butler has been dominant.
They were extremely efficient on offence, taking just 81 shots and making 56.8% of them. Boston threw up 17 more attempts, but they were contested looks, not easy shots.
On the defensive end, Miami were proactive and closed the passing lanes. They pressured Boston into contested shots and turnovers. They worked harder and wanted it more.
Whilst Boston started to force things under pressure, Miami's good defence led to easy offence. The Heat spent all night having success with their drive-and-kick looks and making 54.3% of their three-point shots.
It was just such a complete performance it's hard to see how Boston aren't demoralised. Equally, it's hard to see how Miami match that.
Boston tried to make some adjustments and line-up tweaks for game three but they just didn't work. They'll have to find ways to slow Miami while getting better production from Jayson Tatum, Marcus Smart and co.
They'll try again in game four and as good as Miami has been, they could still take this back to Boston where they'd likely ride the wave and make it 3-2.
This game has zigged and zagged between over and under so far, but the games haven't troubled the average number of shots you'd see in an NBA game, they've just been efficient.
Boston haven't found a way to slow Miami down and so we think they have to push the pace and just persist in trying to find ways to score. The numbers suggest over the total and that's our bet.
