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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills tips and picks: Beware the AFC underdog that doesn’t bark

The Buffalo Bills (11-6) play host to the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) in the third and final AFC Wild Card Round game on Sunday (1800 GMT).

The mismatch of the AFC Wild Card Round puts the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) on the road against the Buffalo Bills (11-6) on Sunday.

That said, just one game separated them in the regular season and the bookmakers may have gone a little too big on Buffalo, who opened a -10 favourite.

The number two-ranked Bills were just 5-5 when the Denver Broncos beat them 24-22 on November 14, but they’re 6-1 and finding form at the right time.

They’ve reeled off five straight victories, including wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins, are were unfortunate to lose by three to the Philadelphia Eagles.

The Steelers will look to play on the fact they’ve already been written off.




They finished the game on a three-match win streak of their own and let’s not overlook the fact they beat the number one seed Baltimore Ravens, 17-10.

That was their second win over the Ravens this season and they produced victories on the road in Seattle, Las Vegas and Cincinnati, and were only beaten 13-10 by the Browns.

These teams are not Josh Allen and the Bills, but they’re still challenging road games that the Steelers won despite being underdogs.

Despite the Bills form, they’ve won two of 13 by 11 or more points, and one of those games was against the lowly New York Jets.

The red flag when backing this team to win by this many points is we’ve seen the offence misfire on more than one occasion early in games.

If Pittsburgh can keep things close in the early stages and maybe even steal a lead, this game will be a lot closer than many are predicting. 

The amount of injuries suffered has hurt the Steelers' defence and may do here, but Mason Rudolph’s revival has seen the Steelers record back-to-back 30-point outings recently.


Suggested bets

Pittsburgh Steelers +10.5

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