Andrey Rublev to conquer in Dubai and Taylor Fritz to win again in Mexico

In gambling as in life, some days we get the eggs, and some days we get the shells.

Last week’s 9/1 headline pick Cameron Norrie made serene progress to the semi-finals of the Rio Open (and went odds-on to win it in the process) before inexplicably losing 6-4 6-2 to qualifier Mariano Navone on Saturday, playing as though he had a pair of skinny jeans on against the world No 113.

That was a tough beat, but then tennis is the theatre of the unexpected, and you never know what can happen under those bright lights.

We go again this week and there are events in Dubai, Acapulco and Santiago.

In Dubai, Daniil Medvedev is the tournament favourite and defending champion. However, the Russian has not played since losing to Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open final last month, pulling out of events in Rotterdam and Qatar citing a foot injury and fatigue as reasons for his non-participation.

A fully fit Medvedev would be a rightful jolly to win this, but I am loathe to jump on until I have seen with my own two peepers that he is back to his best physically.

I feel compelled to give Andrey Rublev another go, despite losing cash on him last week in Qatar. The Russian is an offensive baseliner with a big forehand – a thing of brutal beauty when he is in the mood - and he also has a mega consistent two-handed backhand.

His style is characterised by an ultra-aggressive baseline game, and while he can be fragile mentally due to getting too emotional on court, he won this event in 2022 and is an exceptional talent outdoors on this type of surface.

One outsider who might be worth a peanut play in Dubai is Gael Monfils. Thirty-seven-year-old Monfils accepted a wildcard for this after a run to the semis in Qatar.

His game is in great order, as he showed by smashing past Frenchman Ugo Humbert 6-2 6-4 at the Qatar Open last week to become the oldest semi-finalist in the tournament’s history.

A pro for 20 years, La Monf is a former world No. 6 who is very much in the winter of his career but also someone who has the game and the cojones to make a mockery of current 40/1 odds if punted each-way.

The Abierto Mexicano Telcel is another ATP 500 event happening this week, and a decent field has assembled in Acapulco.

Alexander Zverev, Holger Rune and Stefanos Tsitsipas are among the favourites, and it should be a fun week given that nine of the Top 20 players in the world headline in Mexico.

Zverev is 13-3 in Acapulco, and won here in 2021, so the big German will have his backers. However, he lost to Jordan Thompson in Los Cabos last week, so seems a little short at 9/2 given the quality in this field (Casper Ruud and Ben Shelton are also involved).

Instead, I am going to get with Taylor Fritz, a former finalist in Acapulco won has won seven ATP Tour singles titles, including a Masters 1000 title at the 2022 Indian Wells Masters.

Fritz is an offensive baseliner with a killer serve. He should win plenty of cheap points here if the first serve is firing and can go back-to-back in terms of tournament wins after winning his last ATP event in Delray Beach.

 

Suggested bets:

- Rublev to win the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships

- Monfils (each-way) to win the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships

- Fritz to win the Abierto Mexicano Telcel