Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich tips and predictions: Spaniards to punish German’s leaky defence
- George Dempsey
- 7 May 2024
Real Madrid and Bayern Munich will meet in the Champions League semi-finals second leg at the Bernabeu on Wednesday (2000 BST) with the teams tied at 2-2.
Real Madrid claimed their 36th La Liga title with a 3-0 win over Cadiz on Sunday, while opponents Bayern Munich lost 3-1 to Stuttgart as their grip on second place weakened.
The pair played out an enthralling 2-2 draw in Germany last week but we expect the hosts to have a greater level of control this week.
We backed Real Madrid: Draw no bet as our main selection last week and Vinicius Junior’s penalty in the 83rd minute saw that stake return to us.
Nearly all of Bayern’s problems have come on their travels this season. They’ve failed to win in seven of their last nine and have conceded two or more in seven of those outings.
The draw in Bavaria coupled with their victory at the weekend means Carlo Ancelotti’s side are now unbeaten in 42 matches across all competitions.
The Bernabeu isn’t a place where teams win these days and it’s worth noting that Bayern haven’t got the better of Real in seven Champions League meetings there.
Thomas Tuchel’s side were able to edge possession in the first leg but there was little between the teams in terms of chance creation, with each fashioning three big chances.
There’s little doubt the hosts will have more of the ball this evening and that spells trouble for Bayern.
Assuming everyone is fit then they’re a dangerous side on the break, yet their defensive performances away from home have been shambolic at times.
Madrid are equally dangerous with or without the ball and we don’t see how Bayern can mastermind a victory in this one so we’ll happily back the hosts to win.
Team news
Aurelien Tchouameni is the only fresh doubt for the hosts while David Alaba remains out.
Vinicius and Rodrygo will continue in attack, supported by Jude Bellingham in an advanced midfield role.
Raphael Guerreiro has joined Kingsley Coman in the treatment room but Leroy Sane, Serge Gnabry and Jamal Musiala are ready to go.
Bayern will also be without Tarek Buchmann, Bouna Sarr and Sacha Boey.
The returning Dayot Upamecano could partner Kim-Min Jae in defence if Eric Dier and Matthijs De Ligt haven’t recovered from injury.
Key Stats
- Real Madrid have scored 15 in five home matches, including three against Man City and Barcelona
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in 42 matches across all competitions
- Real Madrid are unbeaten in 32 home matches across all competitions
- Bayern Munich have failed to win seven of their last nine away matches
- Bayern Munich conceded two or more goals in seven of those matches
