Olympiakos vs Fiorentina final tips and predictions: El Kaabi to settle Europa Conference League final
- George Dempsey
- 28 May 2024
Olympiakos and Fiorentina will clash on Greek soil in the UEFA Europa Conference League final on Wednesday night (2000 BST)
This isn’t Fiorentina’s first rodeo having lost last year’s final to West Ham. Still, we can’t ignore the fact this game will take place on Greek soil, which could be an advantage for Olympiakos.
The ball has hit the net 410 times in this season’s Europa Conference League and it may just take one moment of brilliance to settle game 141, the all-important final.
Few teams have contributed more to that tally than our finalists, with the Italian’s fixtures featuring 40 goals since the start of qualifying.
Their Greek opponents have played far fewer matches - just eight, in fact - but have also averaged around 3.5 goals per match and staged a comeback for the ages.
Jose Luis Mendilibar channelled the spirit of Spanish counterpart Luis Enrique, mastermind of arguably the greatest comeback in football history when overturning a 4-1 first-leg deficit.
The Greeks collapsed and trailed Maccabi Tel Aviv 4-1 in the round of 16, but goals from top-scorer Ayoub El Kaabi plus three others turned the tie around for a 7-5 aggregate win.
We’ll avoid backing over 11.5 goals on Wednesday, as finals are typically cagey. Not only are Fiorentina unbeaten in 13 in the competition, but their defence has been in good form.
Either side of a wild 4-3 win over Maccabi, which seems typical of the Israelis, La Viola has allowed just six goals in nine contests, keeping four clean sheets in the process.
If you’re looking for further clues on how this match will unfold, then note the Italian side tops the possession table in the competition, controlling 59.9% of the ball on average.
However, that may suit Olympiakos. They’re typically second-best in possession stakes, but only three sides have flown into more tackles, and they’ve been prolific without the ball.
Premier League Aston Villa found out just how devastating they can be. Despite controlling 70% of possession across two legs, the Villans were hit for six, including a couple in transition.
In our opinion, Olympiakos are built to manage Fiorentina’s style, and we’re a little surprised to see the Italians priced as clear favourites. We’ll happily take the bigger price.
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Team news
An extended rest has allowed Stevan Jovetic to return to full fitness, meaning Mendilibar has a full squad to pick from.
Top scorer Ayoub El Kaabi, a devastating finisher with 15 goals in 18 European appearances, is sure to start in the attack.
Riccardo Sottil is still sidelined for Fiorentina after suffering a fractured collar bone in April.
Other than that, Vicenzo Italiano has a full squad to choose from. Although the tinkerer rarely names the same team twice, top scorer Nico Gonzalez was rested at the weekend and will likely start.
Key stats
- The Greek side's only UEFA title win is this season’s Youth League victory
- Olympiakos have won six of eight Conference League matches
- Ayoub El Kaabi is the competition’s top scorer with 10 goals
- This will be Fiorentina’s sixth UEFA final, five of which they’ve lost
- He also scored five goals in the Europa League before elimination
- Fiorentina are unbeaten in 13 Europa Conference League matches
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