FA Cup value bets: Eastleigh, Peterborough and Bristol City in with a shout of causing an upset

We didn’t quite land our FA Cup acca when we tackled the second round, but the highlight of the picks was Eastleigh’s surprise win against League One Reading.

That was a very healthy price despite the fact everyone and their dogs could see it coming - apart from the bookmakers, that is.

Saturday’s action-packed fixture list is full of short-priced favourites the bookies are begging you to take, so we’ve set out to find some value on the outsiders.

 

Suggested bets

Eastleigh to beat Newport - 14/5 (3.80)

Cardiff to beat Sheffield Wednesday - 2/1 (3.00)

Bristol City or draw - 2/1 (3.00)

Peterborough to beat Leeds - 10/3 (4.33)

Wigan or draw - 7/2 (4.50)

*Odds are accurate at the time of writing

 

Newport vs Eastleigh (Saturday 1500 GMT)

Our first selection is an easy one. The Spitfires did us a solid in the previous round and they’ve got another winnable tie against Newport of League Two.

The beauty of this tie is despite the big price, Newport could play their best and still lose. The sides are separated by 16 places and the visitors, although leaky, know where the goal is.

County are winless in five and they’ve scored one or fewer goals in four of those games.

On the other hand, Eastleigh have scored 18 in seven. They won’t be fearful of this tie.

 

Sheffield Wednesday vs Cardiff (Saturday 1730 GMT)

This bet also picks itself. Wednesday continue to benefit from the rub of the green. They’re being outperformed on xG and last time out an early red card for Hull made life easier.

That luck is going to run out at some point and before beating Hull, they lost 2-1 at home to Cardiff. The Bluebirds have won six away games this season and most were against struggling sides.

Neither of these sides are reliable or consistent but over the course of the season, the visitors have shown themselves to be a better side. It's worth a punt.

 

Peterborough vs Leeds United (Sunday 1400 GMT)

While we think this isn’t the likeliest of upsets, Leeds have too much previous to ignore. Crawley, Newport, Sutton, Rochdale, and who can forget the best of all, Histon.

That said, they’ll field a much better team than in those matches and the club is in a better place. They can afford to go full strength and that should be too much for any League One side.

What makes this possible is that Peterborough are so capable of scoring in bunches and Leeds’ are sleepwalking their way through too many away games.

 

West Ham vs Bristol City (Sunday 1400 GMT)

We whittled our final selection down to two. It was either Bristol City or Bristol Rovers, the Robins or the Gas. In the end, we’ve settled on the red side of Bristol.

West Ham are short of bodies, and some very talented ones at that, and they lacked a cutting edge against Brighton in a fortunate 0-0 draw.

City’s visits to Leicester, Leeds and Southampton all resulted in a narrow second-half loss in a game where they looked organised and competitive.

 

Wigan Athletic vs Man United (Monday 2015 GMT)

Last but not least, we have to, don’t we?

This would be the most United thing because they’ve run out of ways to surprise and disappoint the fanbase in recent times.

The reality is they could play a third-choice XI, perform poorly and still win the tie.

Odds of 10/1 look nice but they may not be the best route to take, especially as Wigan have their issues.

That said, they’ve avoided defeat in eight of 12 league games at home. All of the top sides have just edged past them and they’ve claimed the scalp of Peterborough. This could be a competitive game.