Euro 2024: Spain vs Georgia tips and predictions - No fairytale ending as La Roja machine rolls on

Georgia’s 2-0 win over Portugal was one of the biggest shocks in football history, at least if you buy into FIFA’s rankings. Their reward is a Round of 16 tie with Spain.

In truth, the minnows were up against a much-changed Selecao who had already punched their ticket to the knockout stages, but still, it was an impressive result.

The Georgians sat deeper and looked more organised than in their first two matches, yet they still allowed Cristiano Ronaldo and co to produce 2.04xG.

No side has conceded a higher xG than Georgia (8.10) at Euro 2024. We can praise them for their efforts, but they’ve been powerless to stop teams from creating chances.

Giorgi Marmadashvilli was sensational once again as Guram Kashia put his body on the line time and time again, but their attacking play was most impressive.

 

Planet Sport Bet Special: Bet £10 on Spain vs Georgia and if both teams score in the first half, get a £5 free bet

 

They created four of the five biggest chances of the match and showed their counter-attacking threat, which is something Spain have experienced.

When the sides met in qualifying in November, Spain turned the ball over and several sharp passes later, Giorgi Chakvetadze sprung Khvicha Kvaratskheila to level the score.

Luis de la Fuente’s side has been the most impressive team at the tournament so far and although they were made to work for a 3-1 win in Spain, they did win 7-1 in Georgia. 

Alvaro Morata’s hat trick made headlines on that occasion but the halftime introduction of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams, who should start on Sunday, caused the hosts problems.

At the other end, they've yet to concede. They haven’t been flawless, as Croatia produced high-quality chances that could have changed the course of that match.

On the other hand, their 1-0 win over Italy was men against boys. They embarrassed the reigning champions without reaching third gear.

They’ve shown a clinical edge and we think if they get an early chance against Georgia, they’ll take it. If Spain score early, there will be no way back for the underdogs.

 

Team news

Spain have no new injury or suspension concerns as Rodri returns from a one-match suspension.

Morata, Williams and Yamal, all of whom were rested against Albania, are expected to start.

Georgia will again rely on goalscoring heroes Kvaratskheila and Georges Mikautadze, who joined the history books by scoring in each of their three group games.

 

Key stats

- Georgia beat Spain 1-0 in a friendly match in 2016
- Georgia have allowed the highest xG, 8.10, of any team at Euro 2024
- Georgia have been outscored 19-3 in six competitive meetings
- Spain beat Georgia 7-1 and 3-1 in Euro qualifying
- Spain have won their last five matches by a margin of 15-1

 

Suggested bets

Spain to win both halves

Alvaro Morata to score

Spain: Over 2.5 goals