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Euro 2024: Germany vs Denmark tips and predictions - Hosts aren’t as good as the odds suggest

We’re predicting Germany will have a tough time seeing off Denmark in their Round of 16 fixture at Euro 2024 on Saturday night (2000 BST).

Germany face Denmark in Dortmund on Saturday afternoon with Julian Nagelsmann’s side having recently leapfrogged France in the betting.

There’s a great expectation around the country as Germany compete on home soil for the first time since 2006 when they made it to the semi-finals of the World Cup.

But has this German team achieved anything to make us think they deserve that respect? Arguably not. We fancied a Germany vs England final, but neither side has impressed us enough to stick with that belief.

Yes, we're aware England have been a total shambles and don't belong in the same sentence as, what is clearly, a German side in much better form.

However, they exited the last two World Cups at the group stage, losing to Mexico, Japan and South Korea, and were dumped out in the first knockout stage by England in 2021.

Except for Florian Wirtz, most of these players were present when they spectacularly failed in Qatar, and recent friendly results say they’re still untrustworthy.

 

 

Planet Sport Bet Special: Bet £10 on Germany vs Denmark and if both teams score in the first half, get a £5 free bet

Ukraine, Poland, Colombia, Mexico, Japan, Turkey and Austria have earned five wins and three draws against Die Mannschaft in the last 12 months.

Denmark, on the other hand, have lost one of their last 15 matches and remain unbeaten in Germany after draws with Slovenia, England and Serbia in the group stage.

You have to go back to 2010 to find the last time a side beat the Danes by two clear goals in a tournament and this group looks more experienced and competitive than any we’ve seen.

They’ve scored in seven of their last eight Euros matches and because England needed extra time to settle the semi-final in 2021, they’re unbeaten in seven.

A well-organised Switzerland side drew up the blueprints for keeping Germany quiet and there’s a good chance Denmark are good enough to follow suit.

Christian Eriksen remains the most creative player at the tournament by the numbers so if they can hang in there and keep Germany at arm’s length, they will get chances.

 

Team news

Another thing making Germany so vulnerable is their injury concerns. Jonathan Tah is likely to be replaced by Nico Schlotterbeck, while Antonio Rudiger is also a doubt.

Niclas Fullkrug is doing his best to force a way into the starting XI, but Kai Havertz is expected to lead the line again.

Denmark’s goalscorer against England, Molten Hjulmand, is suspended. His absence could be negated by the return of Thomas Delaney.

Eriksen will continue his supporting role behind Rasmus Hojlund and Jonas Wind.

 

Key stats

- Germany haven’t reached the quarter-final stage of a tournament since 2016
- Germany have failed to win 18 of their last 30 matches across all competitions
- Denmark have avoided defeat in six of their last eight matches against Germany
- Denmark are unbeaten in seven matches at the European Championships
- Denmark have scored in seven of their last eight matches at European Championships

 

Suggested bets

Denmark +1 Asian handicap

Both teams to score

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