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  • EFL Saturday Acca Tips: Norwich City To Win, Goal Shortage At Watford, Plus More…

EFL Saturday acca tips: Norwich City to win, goal shortage at Watford, plus more…

As the League One and Two campaigns draw to a close and the Championship approaches its climax, one of our tipsters has been looking for the best bets to combine into this week’s accumulator.

Football expert Rhys Tovey, who runs his AGF service on Tipstrr, has examined Saturday’s big games to identify his best-value tips, which are listed below in a tasty fivefold acca at combined odds of more than 20/1.

Weekend acca summary:

(all odds correct at time of article publication)

Planet Sport Bet Acca Bonus: Place £5+ on a correct acca and get up to 50% bonus to your winnings (minimum 5-fold)

Norwich City vs Swansea City

Norwich City host Swansea City on Saturday looking to cement their spot in the Championship play-offs. A Norwich win essentially guarantees a top-six finish as they would be six points ahead of seventh placed Hull, with a better goal difference.

The Canaries will surely be targeting a win in this one due to their fantastic home record. Before their draw with Bristol City last weekend, Norwich had won eight matches in a row at Carrow Road and are unbeaten in 14 matches there. They have been particularly strong against the division’s weaker sides, winning 10 of their 11 matches at home against sides in the bottom half of the table.

Their final home game of the season is against bottom-half Swansea City, who come into this fixture in good form, having won each of their last three matches. However, they have only won one of their last five games away from home.

The Swans’ record away from home against top-half teams is also extremely poor, having managed just one win and one draw. They lost each of the other nine games against those sides, including all five against sides in the top six. Add in the fact that Swansea do not have anything left to play for, and Norwich should have far too much quality for the Swans.

  • Suggested bet: Norwich to win (4/6)
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Watford vs Sunderland

Tom Cleverley’s role as manager of Watford was made permanent this week after a decent interim spell which saw him only lose one of his seven matches in charge, and even that was to a 90th-minute goal away at promotion chasing Southampton. He also only won one of those seven matches, which was his first game in charge, away at relegation-threatened Birmingham City. With five draws in seven matches, he appears to be setting his side up to keep things tight and not lose.

This is further evidenced by their recent 0-0 draws, with three of their last four games finishing in goalless stalemates, including their last two home games. The Hornets' other home game under Cleverley also finished all square, although there were goals as it finished 2-2. However this was against Leeds United, a prolific side who have had some extremely high-scoring games in recent weeks.

Watford’s opponents this weekend, however, are not prolific at all. Mike Dodds has been interim manager of Sunderland for 11 matches and the Black Cats have scored just seven goals during that time. They have managed five clean sheets across those same matches, which gives the impression that Dodds is like Cleverley, in the sense that his prime objective is to keep things tight.

Other than a few freak scorelines, Sunderland’s matches have tended to be low on goals, with eight of the last 10 seeing under 2.5 goals. In fact, seven of those matches saw under 1.5 goals. Four of their five away games under Dodds have been under 2.5 goals, with the only one going over being against Southampton, a side that is great going forward but leaky at the back.

With both sides seemingly happy to keep the scoreline tight, a draw is a very real possibility. No matter the outcome, it is hard to see there being lots of goals, so the preferred bet is under 2.5 goals.

Derby County vs Carlisle Utd

In this final weekend of the regular League One campaign there is still plenty to play for, with Portsmouth’s spot in next season’s Championship after clinching the title comfortably. The second automatic promotion spot is still undecided going into the final day of the season, although it is firmly in Derby’s hands. 

The Rams are currently three points ahead of Bolton Wanderers, with a +4 better goal difference too, meaning just one point would be enough for Derby to secure promotion. On paper, they could not have asked for a better fixture as they take on bottom of the table (and already relegated) Carlisle United. The odds reflect this however, with a Derby win far too short to bet on at 1/5.

It is easy to see why the home side are such strong favourites, even before factoring in that they are playing for promotion and that Carlisle are already relegated. Derby have been strong at home having won their last five at Pride Park. plus they have only lost one of their last 10 league games, keeping seven clean sheets during that time. 

Opponents Carlisle have picked up the lowest amount of points away from home in the division and have lost more away games than any other side. In fact, their 29 defeats is comfortably the most in the league, five more than the second-worst team.

Since New Year’s Day, Carlisle have lost 16 of their 20 league games, but despite this record, they have been scoring goals, which is probably why the odds for this bet are as high as they are. A Derby win to nil pays well at 10/11, but with Derby knowing that a clean sheet is all they need to gain promotion, I would rather have 0-0 onside too at just marginally tighter odds.

 

Forest Green Rovers vs Notts County

This match has nothing on the line, which can often be dangerous from a betting perspective, but the odds for an away win looks like excellent value to me.

Forest Green are already relegated and have lost six of their last eight matches, including their last three at home. They have looked doomed for the majority of the season and only really had one seven-game run during February/March where they looked to show some fight to stay up. They picked up four wins and a draw during that run of games, but have really struggled on either side of it.

Their home record is the worst in the division, with four wins, four draws and 14 defeats. Two of those victories, as well as a draw, came during their strong run of form where they looked like a completely different side. When ignoring that run of games, they have lost six in a row at home and not won in ten.

Their opponents on Saturday, Notts County, currently sit 14th in the league but are a far better side than that position suggests. Even after a shaky December/Christmas period, when they won twice but lost four times, County were still in contention for automatic promotion. But after manager Luke Williams left to join Swansea City, their form completely fell apart, going on a run of one win, two draws and eight defeats in eleven matches which saw them nosedive down the table.

Notts County have shown a bit of promise in recent weeks however, winning three of their last four and only losing to champions Stockport County. There is also an argument that they have looked far more comfortable playing away from home, particularly since Williams’ departure. County have picked up three more points on their travels than at home in one less fixture since Williams left.

It is hard to know exactly where Notts County should be in the table based on their quality, but it is higher than where they currently are. If this fixture was played back in December, Notts County would have ben comfortably odds-on favourites to win, so the hope is that Notts County are back to their early-season quality and have enough about them to win this one.

Salford City vs Harrogate Town

This particular bet has been a favourite of mine this season and has featured in a number of these articles. Although Harrogate have not won in eight away games, they very rarely lose. After losing three of their opening four away games, Harrogate have only lost three times away from home, in games against promoted Mansfield Town, playoff chasing Crawley Town and Notts County, a side, as previously mentioned, should be far higher in the table.

Despite rarely losing, they continue to be priced up at around evens not to lose, which is excellent odds for something that has happened in 15 of their last 18 away games. They have also only lost twice in their last nine league games.

Opponents Salford City have the second-worst home record in the division, with only relegated Forest Green Rovers having picked up fewer points. They have lost four of their last five league games, with the only win coming last time out, away at Newport County, who themselves have lost their last seven matches.

Salford have been finding the net  under manager Karl Robinson, scoring in 18 of his 20 games in charge, but have looked vulnerable defensively, conceding in 18 , including all ten home games, as well as conceding two or more in seven of those home matches.

 

Weekend acca summary:

Back all five selections as singles and/or bundle them together into fivefold acca at combined odds of more than 20/1 on Planet Sport Bet (prices subject to change).

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