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Copa America 2024: Argentina vs Canada tips and predictions - World Cup winners to progress despite conceding

Copa America favourites Argentina will face Jesse Marsch’s Canada in the semi-finals on Tuesday night (0100 BST, Weds) at MetLife Stadium.

Copa America favourites Argentina will face Canada in the early hours of Wednesday morning and with Brazil out of the tournament, expectations have risen.

The winner of this semi-final will advance to face either Colombia or Uruguay. It should be La Albiceleste, but we can’t write off the Canadians.

Jesse March’s side have frustrated Peru, Chile and Venezuela during their first-ever Copa America appearance, which started with a 2-0 loss to Argentina.

On the one hand, the stats say Lionel Scaloni’s side were utterly dominant. On the other hand, Canada held them scoreless for 49 minutes and produced five big chances of their own.

The World Cup holders could be forgiven for making a pedestrian start to the tournament, but they certainly showed their class in the second half.

We also have to note that the North Americans' only goal of the group stage came after Peru’s Miguel Araujo saw red in the 59th minute.

The biggest challenge they’ve faced is keeping possession against quality opposition. Les Rouges have enjoyed 46% of possession through four matches and 36% against Argentina.

The key to their chance creation has been successfully deploying Jonathan David behind Cyle Larin to link the player. Against Venezuela, he touched the ball 50 times.

If Marsch’s side can stand firm, they’ll be typically direct and vertical, but will they be able to find a key pass and produce chances? Well, possibly.

On average, the CONMEBOL side is allowing 0.77xG per match. However, they’ve allowed just one goal. That could yet level itself out but we know they have the firepower to concede and win.

Lionel Messi hasn't performed to his usual high standard in America but we've seen his ability to take control of games when it matters most, so he could have a major influence.

There’s only one winner in our eyes but in the search for value, we’ll take a flyer on Canada finding the net and making a game of this, if only briefly.

 

 

Key stats

- Argentina are unbeaten in 12 Copa America matches
- Canada’s only defeat so far came against Argentina
- Lautaro Martinez has scored four goals in four matches

 

Suggested bets

Lautaro Martinez to score

Both teams to score

Over 2.5 goals

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